Tuesday Trouble?

7AM Friday Update.... I have no changes to the post below.  I just quickly glanced at the early Friday data and it continues to indicate a vigorous system Tuesday which poses a threat for severe weather.  The only real question is instability.  With each newer model run, it does bring in a bit more.   Since it's several days away, we will continue to monitor it over the weekend and I'll keep you updated here, on twitter (katv_weather) and on facebook (Todd Yakoubian)

I have seen the models flip flop a lot lately so nothing here is set in stone, but the situation next Tuesday needs to be watched carefully.  We are now in our secondary severe weather season and in some cases, it can be just as dangerous as our primary severe weather season.  At this time, it appears a strong system aloft and at the surface will advance through our neck of the woods with plenty of moisture return.  This is like pouring gas on a fire.  Check out the maps below.  Remember, this is still several days away and much can change so stay tuned!!!!!

This is the GFS valid late next Tuesday.  It shows a surge of dewpoint vaules of 60 degrees or higher across the entire state as it wraps into the area of low pressure at the surface in northeast Oklahoma.  When forecasting significant severe weather, you generally look for dewpoint values in excess of 55 degrees.  It appears this may be established.

This is the GFS at the same time period.  Notice the surface low in Oklahoma.  The wind barbs (lines) across Arkansas are from the south and the southeast at the surface.

Just a few thousand feet above our heads, the winds are roaring out of the southwest around the low over Oklahoma.  So with winds out of the south-southeast at the surface and then winds out of the southwest higher up, there's some spin in the atmosphere which will need to be monitored!!!

The SPC has highlighted the entire state for the threat for severe weather Tuesday.