Why Did We Bust The Forecast

If you scroll down a couple blog posts, you will find one about the possibility of Mother Nature throwing a curveball at us.  While I'm glad we saw this coming, the extend and timing was off.  Basically, it was a completely BUSTED forecast!

The reason for this mornings winter wonderland is a direct result of a strong upper level area of low pressure.  Most of the reliable models we use showed it quite well, but moisture was lacking with it.  Therefore, the snow chances were really downplayed in the forecast.  I have seen this time and time again in meteorology, these upper level features tend to outperform what the models say.  They have the ability to squeeze out any available moisture as these systems have strong lift with them.  There were a couple models which showed it, but we failed to completely buy into it.  The NAM did a good job and at one time the GFS model showed this, but backed away during the days leading up to it.

You can clearly see the strong upper level low at 500 mb over the mid south.  It's in the area of red and orange.

Anyway, I don't hear too many complaints since we love the snow, especially during Christmas time.  I just wish the roads didn't get slick.

This is the world of weather!  Forecasting never has been, isn't now, and will not be perfect.  We can only do the best job possible and learn from our mistakes.  I promise you this, next time I see one of these strong upper lows, I'm not going to shy away from talking about snow or rain!

Everyone, be safe and enjoy the snow!

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Snow on the ground in Arkansas seen by a weather satellite in space