Remember my disclaimer, this can and WILL change with each run of the models. Regardless, I'm not expecting any sort of paralyzing winter storm whatsoever! This will be a reminder that ole man winter is still in control. Check out the maps below from the overnight run of the models. I'll keep you updated here and.
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6:40 PM Friday Update... I have no real changes to what I have below, but I do have something to add. The WeatherNinja and WeatherClipper brought up a very, very good point. We do not get significant snow or ice storms unless there is an east or northeast wind at the surface. Forecast surface winds during this event will be out of the southeast and south. This could limit snow and ice across portions of Arkansas. Nevertheless, this is a significant event due to the fact we haven't had much winter this year. I'll continue to keep up updated on the "Arkansas Slushie".
8:45AM Friday Update...
I wanted to add a couple model soundings from the GFS on Monday. This takes a look at the atmosphere from the ground up giving us an idea of the temperature and moisture profile. I have selected Little Rock as the point of reference.
|This is the GFS valid Monday morning at 6 AM. It may be a little too aggressive painting the whole state in pink (snow). I do think there will be at least a chance for that across the northern half of Arkansas.|
|By noon, the snow is confined to the northern portions of the state with sleet and freezing rain beginning to come to an end across central sections as temperature SLOWLY climb above freezing. It's all rain (green) south.|
|By late Monday (6 PM) the thermal profile is more conducive to sleet across the north and rain elsewhere as warmer air continues to move north. As you can see, it's the northern portions of the state who will stay in the frozen precip. longest.|