Sunday, June 24, 2012

Heat and Hurricanes


4:45 PM Sunday update... It was a record breaking day with highs of 101 in both Little Rock and North Little Rock.  I think we'll do it all over again Monday with high temperatures right around 100 degrees.  A front will slide through the state bringing a very, very small chance for a shower or storm later Monday followed by a brief cool down.

As mentioned below, the forecast track of Debby was highly uncertain.  The European model has now shifted and is forecasting the storm to move more eastward.  Now, most models have the storm more on an eastward course and the Tropical Prediction Center has drastically changed their forecast.  They are favoring a Florida panhandle hit, but I think it may go a bit further to the east.  Regardless, this will have no impact on Arkansas weather, but will impact Arkansans vacationing on the beach down there.  This track may also help keep gas prices from rising too much, but I'm not an expert in that field.  I'll keep you updated here on the Arkansas Weather Blog.


It comes down to this question:  Would you rather have drought conditions or extreme flooding?  The later option could also come with tornadoes and I'll explain in a bit.  First of all, it's a lose - lose situation all around for Arkansas.

A very powerful ridge of high pressure will bring near record breaking temperatures Sunday and Monday with several locations hitting 100 degrees or higher.  In Little Rock we'll top out around 97-100 degrees.  The record Sunday is 100 set in 1998 and the record Monday is 101 set in 1998.  The wildfire danger will be categorized as either high or even extreme.  The bottom line, we need rain!  However, rains from a slow moving tropical system can be devastating.

Tropical Storm Debby continues to spin in the Gulf and she is in no hurry to move.  The slower the system, the heavier the rainfall amounts.  There is one computer model which takes it right over Arkansas and that's the European.  As far as long range forecasting is concerned, this is usually a good model.  However, the late Saturday run of this model was the first time it showed such a scenario and it's also the only model out of many which brings the remnants over Arkansas.  The Canadian model showed this as well Friday and Saturday, but the latest run takes it well east of the state.  As you can tell, there is so much uncertainty surrounding the forecast of this system.  If the Euro is correct, it would bring large rain amounts to Arkansas and even the possibility for tornadoes since we would be on the right side of the circulation.  I'll go ahead right now and say, I think there is a very, very low chance the Euro is correct, but it is definitely worth watching!!!!!!

I think the more likely track is into Texas or into Louisiana, then it continues to the west.  This would not have an impact on our weather, but would impact all of us in terms of gas prices.  Watch that as well.

Check out the maps below

This shows how all over the place the models are right now.  Each line represents a computer model track.  There is so much uncertainty.

This is the Euro valid late next Saturday.  This shows the remnants right over Arkansas.  This is the only model I have found doing this and I'm not buying it right now, but it's worth watching.
These charts are hand drawn from HPC and it's the forecast for the next 7 days.  Look how slow the system is moving and it's moving to the west.  This would bring extreme rainfall amounts to the Gulf coast states of LA and TX.  This track is most likely as it takes Debby around the south edge of a ridge of high pressure.
5 day rain amounts are up to 16'' over the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days.  Imagine that as it moves inland.  If Debby maintains intensity and slow speed, this would bring a dangerous situation for areas south of Arkansas.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I think a poll would be a good idea for whether droughts or floods are preferred. I'd prefer flood. At least it wouldn't be a scorcher outside.

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