Wednesday, September 12, 2012

REAL Fall-Tastis Weather Not Too Far Away

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN
TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

Wednesday Sept 12th Update...

You think this weather feels good? Just wait until later next week!  I have been on vacation and have tried to stay away from the computer as much as possible.  Now, I'm fired up and ready to go, especially after seeing the computer models starting next week.  The details still have to be sorted out, but the pattern will become unusually amplified for this time of the year.  There is the real potential for well below average temperatures.  I'll have more in depth analysis later, but here are the temperature outlooks from NOAA over the next couple of weeks.  Again, more model analysis later...

6-10 day outlook shows a good chance for well below average temperatures through the center of the county.
And it rolls on through the 8-14 day outlook.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Can someone explain to me in Todd's tweet how the new Canadian model correlates to the beans or no beans debate?

Anonymous said...

I am anxiously awaiting Todd's update..

I'm curious to know just how low our high temperatures will be. Based on all the hype, it would sound like lower 70's to me. Someone even went so far as to tweeting it will become "chilly."

Anonymous said...

Comments are dead, but that should certainly change as we head into fall with our first true cool/cold front and into winter!

Anonymous said...

Typo in the title. Fall-tastic, not "Fall-tastis."

SnowbirdBob said...

Hello Everyone, Its been a while. Hope all of you are doing well..Now.let's get back to the weather..I know many of you have said SBB was off last winter..Yes.I had an off season..Let's start this again..We currently have a Negative NAO & Negative AO..This should bring us much cooler weather in the Sept.21-28th time-frame..& Yes..It is possible for some locations in Arkansas to see some frost & record low temps...One, thing I have noticed after research over the years..What type of AO & NAO values you had in the summer the following winter followed suite..Most of the Summer of 2012 we had a Neg NAO & AO for the most part..That's where I think this winter should stay most of the time..But, Let me say this..We dont want a strongly negative NAO & AO for a long period of time in the fall..I beleive this would lead to a warming of the pole..If these Cold Airmasses cant set up there & build..How can we get the "Jail Break of Arctic Air" & Very Wintry conditions..I would like to see a Neutral NAO & AO until about Nov.25th..Then let that baby tank into the Negative & Stay there for the rest of the Winter..We are also going into a El Nino type pattern..That should lead to a very active sub-tropical jet & southern storm track..Which will lead to a much more active Winter Weather ride than last Winter..As I stated last year..I will not give anymore Winter Outlooks..But, I will say for the Record..I look for a Cool ending Sept. & first half of Oct. Then a warm up until around Thanksgiving..Late Dec.into Feb Could be Brutal at times with many chances for Winter Precip for all parts of the state..& Yes, I beleive a 30 year Jail Break of Arctic Air is possible..We are Due..Look back at the climatology..We really hadnt had one since the mid 1980's..before that the 1960's....Before that the 1950's..Unless you consider 3 Days of early Feb.1996 or a few days in late Dec. 1989..But nothing sustained..We are over Due!!!..Another thing..Do we have to have a strongly Negative NAO & AO to get major Cold & Wintry Weather..NO!!..But, for it to hold & repeat..Yes, I believe we do..Things are looking good for us that like real winter weather & cold temps...Let's set back & enjoy the nice weather & temps..Before the real games gets going..Dec.15th- March 15th...Until next time..Enjoy the game..Go Hogs..WPS ;)..Beat Bama!

Bob Read AKA SnowbirdBob

Anonymous said...

It looks like at the end of the 7 day forecast, a warming trend will set in place and get us back to the lower 80's.

Is that "chilly" air still supposed to come after next week? Haven't been hearing much about it lately.