While I don't expect an "outbreak" I do think we'll see several severe thunderstorms warnings later this afternoon and evening. The main threat will be wind and some hail. There will also be the threat for tornadoes, but I still don't think it's all that high, but you should stay weather aware today.
I think there's a very high chance the Storm Prediction Center will issue a tornado watch this afternoon for portions of central and eastern Arkansas. I don't want to completely downplay the tornado aspect of this, but high winds and hail will be much more common within the severe thunderstorms.
As I said in the previous post, this will be a fast moving front and the window for severe weather will be quite narrow. These storms will develop and merge into a squall line and sweep east of the Mississippi River in just the matter of a few short hours.
The hires NAM shows storms initiating in central Arkansas between 5-6PM. I wanted to show you another hi res model below for comparison and some graphics from the Storm Prediction Center. Remember, these models are NOT perfect, but I like to show them to give you a general idea as to what will happen.
|By 7PM, this model shows individual cells developing from south central into northern Arkansas.|
|The HiRes NAM has more of solid line by 7PM in almost the exact same location.|
|By 8 PM, this hires model still has individual cells pushing into eastern Arkansas. If there's enough low level shear, the tornado threat will be a concern IF this were to verify.|
|By 9PM, the cells are merging and moving into far eastern and southeastern Arkansas|
|By 10PM, the storms are exiting the state|
|The SPC has almost all of AR in a slight risk for severe weather this Wed. afternoon and evening.|
|SPC indicates a 10% chance for a tornado within 25 miles of any given point in the yellow area in eastern AR.|
|SPC shows an area where there's a 30% chance of severe thunderstorm winds within 25 miles of any given point in the red shaded area.|
|SPC shows a 15% of severe hail within 25 miles of any given point in the yellow shaded area.|