Saturday, January 26, 2013

Tuesday Trouble?


If you read my facebook update early Saturday morning, you saw the entire state outlined for a risk of severe weather Tuesday from the Storm Prediction Center.  The threat for wintry weather has decreased significantly as the models are indicating the whole trough comes out and a piece is not left behind.  For an explanation of that, read the post below.  Does this mean I'm throwing in the towel for wintry weather this week?  No.  While I'll admit the chances for it to happen are very, very low, let's wait until the storm gets out of the Pacific and into the United States.  The system will be better sampled and the models will have a much better handle on it.  Am I "Wishcasting"?  I don't think so.   At this stage, it still appears this comes through Tuesday with a round of showers and storm, then back to cold and dry air.  Do you remember last week how it was suppose to be 70 on Thursday?   The data we analyze can have a hard time, especially this time of year.  With that said, all of us MUST prepare for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms. 

The atmosphere will be juiced up with plenty of moisture as the Gulf of Mexico will open up for business.  A strong southerly flow will develop for a couple days allowing warm and humid air to increase.  As a matter of fact, we could challenge record highs Monday and Tuesday.  I don't think we'll break records, but they won't be far away.  For instance, the record high Monday in Little Rock is 78 in 1975 and the record Tuesday is 78 in 1975 as well.  This will set the stage for a battle in the atmosphere and thunderstorms will be the result.  Please read all the information below!

If we do receive thunderstorms with high winds, this really concerns me.  Driving down Kanis Road the other day I noticed A LOT of this.  Pieces of trees are STILL laying across power lines along the side of the road due to the Christmas Day snow storm.  They are literally just dangling there.  Can you imagine strong winds and a car passing by at the same time?  Someone could get seriously hurt or killed.  I sincerely hope whoever is responsible for clearing this can before winds knock it down!  I know there has to be other areas with the exact same problem.

I want to use the 850 mb level to show you clearly the flow of air around high pressure located over the western Atlantic ocean.  This is the GFS valid early Monday morning. That black circle off the east coast of Florida is the high at this level in the atmosphere.  Remember, with the clockwise rotation around that high, it's pumping a significant amount of moisture into the mid south.  Those small black lines all over the place are wind bards and they are pointing in the direction from which the wind is blowing.  There's a deep fetch of moisture coming up out of the south from the Gulf.  This flow will be established for a couple days.
This is the Euro valid late Tuesday.  Look at the large area of greens to reds.  This is showing you quite a bit of rainfall produced by widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Right now, the presence of cloud cover and some rainfall ahead of the front could limit instability.  Let's hope that happens.  The main surface low is just north of the Great Lakes here.
And here is the GFS at that same time.  Lots of heavy rain moving through the state with this as thunderstorms roll through the south.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large area including all of the state for a threat of severe weather Tuesday and across MS, AL, and TN Wednesday.

In summary, regardless of what model you look at, there appears to be strong front coming through Tuesday with storms which could reach the severe threshold.  The main threat will be some wind and hail, but an isolated tornado can never be ruled out.  This situation can change for the better or worse as we get closer to the actual event.  Also, while it's unlikely, if the models start showing a piece of energy left behind, I'll let you know.

1 comment:

Omarr Wilson said...

I have been watching this system. Haven't done any updates on it yet, I just want to get a better handle on it first. But If there is any Severe Weather that happens and it is life-threatening, The Arkansas Weather Hawk will be out and about.

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