9AM Wednesday Update... Harrison had 1'' of snow last night so their seasonal total is up to 1.3''. This brings the total between Harrison, Hot Springs, Little Rock, and North Little Rock up to 30.6''. At this time, Jerry and Terry Morrison are atop the leaders board in this years winter weather contest. We have until the end of this month so this can still change!
Get ready for a major temperature swing starting Friday into next week. There is one heck of a trough that will swing through the central portion of the country, but it will not stick around. I still can't understand why the GFS MOS still has temperatures in the 50s Friday and Saturday? When you look at the trough and the cold air advection starting Friday morning, you would think highs will only reach the 30s with wind chill readings in the teens and 20s. I guess we'll see who gets this forecast... the computers or me? The GFS run Tuesday night shows a high Friday of 52 and a high Saturday of 53. The only way we hit 52 on Friday is early in the day and temperatures would likely fall back into the 40s.
I'm really focusing in on Saturday because I think there will be 3 factors holding temperatures almost 15 degrees or more below the GFS forecast: cold air advection, clouds, and... wait for it... wait for it... wait for it.... SNOW. Did that get your attention? It's only light snow or flurries!! Probably not a big deal whatsoever, but another reminder winter will not go away yet.
Like I said, this cold air mass will not stick around as the arctic high will move east allowing a significant return flow to set up. This the up side of the roller coaster. By Sunday and Monday, there's a possibility temperatures go back ABOVE average! What a swing if that happens! We also have the possibility for 2 significant storm systems next week. How will that affect Arkansas? I'm going to be completely honest with you, we just don't know yet. It's all depending on the track of each storm. The possibilities include just plain ole rain, thunderstorms, or even wintry weather. It could also be a combination of all three.
So like I said, get ready for some interesting weather over the next 7-10 days. We're going to earn our pay! The maps below explain it all....
|This is late Monday and we have another wave of low pressure and more rain. Taking this model literally, this is just rain and a few rumbles of thunder, but a changeover to more wintry weather is possible just to our NW over Oklahoma into Missouri.|