Sunday, August 25, 2013

"Arkansauna" Returns. 100 Degrees In Sight.

Summer contest numbers updated as of Sunday, August 25th:  7764 Degrees
Rainfall: 17.19'' 

We thought summer was in our rear view mirror, but Mother Nature is reminding us that it's still August.

During the winter, I often talk about the 3 ingredients needed for single digit lows.  There are also 3 ingredients for triple digit heat:  
  1. A dry ground, 
  2. A strong ridge of high pressure 
  3. Sunshine
The early August rainfall will help northern Arkansas and could keep that area of the state out of the 100s, however, with the heat index, it will feel like it.  Unfortunately, the Razorbacks have a 3PM kickoff next Saturday and highs could be in the mid 90s with a heat index around 100.  Not good for the fans and definitely not good for the players!

So far we have only had 2 days of 100 degree + temperatures officially in Little Rock.  There's a good chance we'll add to that by the middle to end of this week as temperatures should get very, very close.  If the heat index goes to 105 or higher, heat advisories may be required so keep that in mind later this week as well.

This is estimated rainfall by radar over the past 30 days.  Look how northern Arkansas has seen much more than the south.  Like I stated above, one of the ingredients for triple digit heat is a dry ground.  The suns energy is focused into evaporation initially.  Once the soil moisture decreases, the sun is much more efficient in heating the ground.  For this reason, the best chance for triple digit heat will be across portions of central, southern, and eastern Arkansas where there is less soil moisture.

This is the European model valid Thursday.  Look at the large ridge over the central United States.  It barely moves this week!  This is the 2nd ingredient for triple digit heat. This is simply a large area of sinking air.  The air dries and warms during this process.  The river of air at the jet stream level is displaced around the ridge keeping any organized storm system away from Arkansas.  There are no signs this will break down until after Labor Day.  Due to the lack of clouds from any organized system, this gives us abundant sunshine... the last ingredient for triple digit heat.

100 degree days over the past 4 years.  We may add to this years total later in the week.  It will be close!

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