Thursday, August 08, 2013

From Usual to Unusual, An Active August Awaits


The weather is usual for some, but quite unusual for others.  While central and southern Arkansas "bake" in triple digit heat index temperatures, northern Arkansas has received so much rainfall, flash flooding has been a real problem. 

If you were watching Daybreak Thursday morning, I called this pattern the "Ring Of Fire".  As a ridge of high pressure is situated just southwest of the state, the storm track is runs right through southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas.  Storms fire up in the corridor over and over again creating flash flooding.

Here's a description of the "Ring of Fire".  The ridge of high pressure situated over TX, southern OK, LA, and southern Arkansas keeps it dry and hot!  The clockwise flow around it sends disturbances along the periphery of the high.  This storm track is why the north has received so much rainfall.  The closer you live to the area of high pressure, the drier it is.

Doppler radar rainfall estimates over the past 7 days really shows where the heaviest rain has occurred and the LACK of rain underneath that BIG area of high pressure.  That's up to 10 inches across Kansas into far northern Arkansas.
There are now signs this ridge I have described above will break down a bit and drift to the west.  This will allow the frontal boundary to drift into the state bringing the storm track further south.  Our rain chances across central and southern Arkansas will increase this weekend.  While it won't be a washout, area of rain and storms will possibly cross the state.
You know how much I love the European model.  This is valid next Thursday morning.  Let me explain.  See all the green blobs?  That's rainfall amounts surrounding the frontal boundary.  The black line making a circle over the Ohio River Valley labeled "1020" is an area of high pressure at the surface.  The flow around this will bring in a northeasterly wind and help push the front southwest of the state.  IF THIS COMPUTER MODEL VERIFIES, WE COULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER AIR BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  STAY TUNED.

1 comment:

Brandon said...

Just looked back at this post. I guess the European Model called it perfectly.

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