Thursday, October 17, 2013

OCTO-BRRRR. Frost, Freeze, Flurries?????

Before I get into the possibilities down the road, I just wanted to bring up a couple items.  First, I'm already working on prizes for the winter weather contest which will kick off for entries in about a month.  Stay tuned for that.  It's going to be another fun one to follow.

One more thing. I have recently freshened up the blog's look.  Some are saying they are having trouble seeing the text against the background.  Apparently, the white background is there for some and not for others.  I'm trying to pin down where the problem exists? Is it a browser issue?  Anyway, please let me know.

Now onto the weather pattern next week and it looks like the amplification only gets stronger.  When a ridge builds into western Canada and Alaska, it forces a trough to develop downstream.  The cold air is pushed southward.  Whenever you see Alaska warm up, look out!  That cold air is going somewhere and it appears it's heading towards our backyard.

The average first frost in Little Rock is November 3rd so it looks possible it could arrive ahead of schedule.  Also, I'M NOT SAYING THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN AND IT'S SET IN STONE, but I would not be surprised is someone reports flurries or sleet across northern Arkansas before Halloween.  It's that kinda pattern that will make you go WOW!  I have been studying the models and they're sending chills up and down my spine each time I look at them.

This is the 500mb pattern next Wednesday.  Look at the ridging over the western U.S and the trough over the central and east.  Cold air is filling that trough and it's coming from the chilly regions of Canada!
Don't get excited just yet.  This is from  It shows you accumulated snow through October 25th.  Yes, there's some light amounts near the Missouri border.  While I'm not going to rule it out, I think the only thing you can take away from this data is that it's going to get cold!  The pattern indicates a northwesterly wind flow aloft and sometimes there can be weak disturbances in the flow.  They are usually moisture starved so we're not looking at anything major.  As a matter of fact, this is usually a very dry and chilly pattern.
This is the GFS valid next Thursday morning and it's showing you surface temperatures.  The 30 degree line is near the MO/AR border!!!! Most of Arkansas will have lows in the 30s!  The black closed line over NE TX is a surface area of high pressure. Due to the proximity of the high, the surface winds will be light to calm.  IF we have clear skies, a frost or freeze will be possible!
The 6-10 day outlook indicates a good chance for below average temperatures.   The average high at this time is in the lower 70s with lows in the upper 40s.
And the 8-14 day outlook says the chill continues through the end of the month with well below average temperatures.  The average high is around 70 at this time with average lows in the mid and upper 40s

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