Monday, November 11, 2013

Cause Nothin Lasts Forever Even Cold NOVEMBER RAIN


When you can use Guns and Roses lyrics, YOU DO IT!

I think we pretty much have covered the cold snap coming from A-Z here on the Arkansas Weather Blog.  Let's jump forward to the end of the week into the weekend.  To be honest with you, due to the wet weather being in the long range, we can't nail down specifics at this point.  However, the pattern will become quite unsettled with periods of rain possible.  Will it be a "COLD NOVEMBER RAIN"?  Maybe not cold, I just wanted to give G and R a shout out on the blog. LOL

The GFS and the Euro are at odds with each other, naturally.  With this rain still several days away, I will use the more superior Euro here.  It will NOT be perfect, but as we have seen, it will probably end up being closest to reality.  By the time we get into the weekend, temperatures will be moderating so this will all be plain ole rain and a few rumbles of thunder.

One more thing before I show you the weather maps.  I will launch the winter weather contest soon.  It will run all of December, January, and February.  I'll let you know when to send in your entries.  Look for the post just before Thanksgiving.

This is the European valid next Saturday morning.  We're looking at a level known as "500 millibars".  We can see what's happening in the upper levels by looking at this chart.  Check out the black lines.  We see them making a "U" shape over the western and central U.S.  That's a trough of low pressure aloft.  Embedded within that trough are disturbances which produce clouds, rain, and storms.  The flow aloft is southwesterly over us, and this is conducive to bringing in unsettled weather along with plenty of cloud cover.  Look at that disturbance over New Mexico.  That one is pretty stout and will be moving to the NE bringing unsettled conditions.
Let's go back 24 hours and look at the surface.  There's high pressure anchored off the east coast.  See those black lines?  The flow is clockwise and this is bringing in abundant Gulf Moisture.  The greys and greens indicate precipitation over the previous 6 hours.  It's light here.  It's worth noting, the GFS shows heavier amounts at this time.
Now lets go back to Saturday night into Sunday morning.  That disturbance in NM I previously mentioned is lifting northeast and is producing quite a bit of rain from Iowa down to the Gulf coast.  See those reds and yellows over Arkansas?   That's indicating areas of moderate to heavy rainfall from 6PM Saturday to midnight Sunday morning.  REMEMBER, WE CAN'T TRUST SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT, BUT I WANT TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA ON HOW UNSETTLED THE PATTERN WILL BECOME.
This is valid Monday the 19th at 6PM.  Look at the black circle due north of St. Louis.  That's a surface area of low pressure.  There is a cold front extending south of that into Arkansas.  You can see the faint, small gray arrows.  That's showing you surface wind direction.  It's out of the west-northwest behind the front in western AR and out of the SW for the remainder of the state at this time.  Now I want to draw your attention to the black circle over eastern Montana.  That's a strong 1040  millibar high coming out of Canada, which is the cold air behind the front.  So we get a round of rain and storms Monday, the front comes through and delivers another blast of cold and windy weather.  AGAIN, IT'S IN THE LONG RANGE AND MAY NOT UNFOLD THE WAY IT'S DEPICTED HERE.
Here are possible rainfall amounts late this week into the weekend from www.weatherbell.com.  Almost 2 inches will be possible across western Arkansas with just under an inch over the east.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Wait, what happened to the possibilities of flurries/sleet/mixed weather in north Arkansas??? A lot of weathermen on the arwx twitter feed alluded to the possibility of this happening Tuesday morning!