Thursday, February 06, 2014

February Made Me Shiver...

...But, February made me shiver with every snow chance mother nature delivered.
Bad news on the doorstep - the kids get out of school again I bet

I can't remember if I cried when I read the models.. they wouldn't lie?
Something touched me deep inside the day bread and milk sales went dry...

My sincere apologies to Don Mclean for butchering the lyrics to one of my favorite songs.  This is the winter without an end, right?  Of course this will all stop, but when?  Anyway, let's focus on the next week.  You are seeing the results of a minor disturbance today bringing a quick dusting to 1 inch of snow, especially to western Arkansas.  The air is so cold, it's squeezing out whatever moisture is available and snow ratios are quite high so it doesn't take much to make it add up.  Regardless, we're only expecting very little.  Look how far we have come this winter.  A dusting to an inch would have cleaned out the bread and milk shelves just a couple of months ago, but I think we're getting accustomed to this wintry weather by now!

Another wave of moisture arrives Friday afternoon and evening.  This too will be weak, but a touch stronger than what's coming through today (Thursday).  I would not doubt if there was another dusting to an inch, but it could be more widespread compared to what we're seeing today.

There appears to be yet another, but more significant system next week.  As you would expect, the data continues to struggle sorting this out. The Euro brings this in Sunday night and the GFS a little later.  

Here are model maps from showing you the overnight run of the GFS.  Remember, these maps show you precip over the past 6 hours.  Blue is snow, orange is sleet, purple is freezing rain, and green is rain.

Monday night, the GFS shows another wintry mix across the state.  The red line is the 32 degree line and it's located across southern Arkansas. High pressure located to the north provides a strong east-northeasterly flow at the surface.  You can clearly see the low pressure at the surface over Mexico.  That's the black circle.
By Noon Tuesday, there is a wintry mess all over the state with the precipitation all the way back to New Mexico! DO NOT TAKE THIS LITERALLY, ESPECIALLY THE PRECIP TYPES!!!!  This will change.
6PM Tuesday, we are covered up still with snow and ice.  AGAIN, PLEASE DO NOT THINK OF THIS AS A FORECAST.  IT'S A MODEL.  IT HELPS GUIDE THE FORECAST.
By Tuesday night, the system is winding down.
In summary, there are still differences in the data and how this will play out.  Last weekend there appeared to be a significant weather maker for this weekend and you can see that clearly is not going to happen so I urge caution about next week.  Stay tuned and I'll keep you updated

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