Sunday, February 02, 2014

Super Mess For Super Bowl Sunday



Everything still seems on track, but the change over may occur a little sooner than anticipated.  Remember in the video I posted below, I said if there was something wrong with the forecast, it would be the subfreezing air arrives faster.  That MIGHT be the case.  

I still think the target area for the heaviest accumulations will be west and north of the metro.  Central areas will see light accumulations of sleet, freezing rain, then snow this afternoon and evening.  It will likely be enough to cause problems on the roads so PLEASE be careful going to any Super Bowl parties.  

Further south, I can't rule out some wintry weather, but the problems should be minimal.  I'll keep a close eye on that situation.

Still on the table is more ice Tuesday morning for the northern half of the state.  It should change to a cold rain in central Arkansas, but stay ice much longer further norther where significant icing could occur.

The next system is still on schedule next Friday and Saturday with a mixed bag of wintry weather again. 

Noon Sunday shows the wintry mix just north and west of the metro.  Blue is snow, orange is sleet and purple is freezing rain.  We know from AM reports, there's some snow within the areas that show sleet.
By 6PM, much of the northern half of the state including the metro is experiencing a wintry mix.
The ice may extend into southern AR before ending.  I think all the precip will exit by midnight.
Futurecast snowfall projections.  This is only a model. Some places could see a little more and some a little less, but this is doing a good job indicating where the snow should fall.
Good agreement with the North American Model of snow accumulations across the NW half of the state.
And the Global Forecasting System shows that corridor as well.
This is our forecast as of Sunday morning for total snow and ice accumulations.  This can still change.  Some places in central AR could see a touch more, especially higher elevations.
And here's the SCHOOL:CON index made Sunday morning for Monday classes.

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