Saturday 5PM Update... Those forecasting challenges I posted below are really no longer there for next week. The GFS has led the way again. The moisture Tuesday will likely stay mostly south of Arkansas, but I'm putting in a slight chance for rain in the forecast. The cold front will push through the state late Tuesday into Wednesday morning and it will be moisture starved so we're not expecting any significant precipitation at this time. The air behind the front will be cool, but not cold. We'll also slowly warm up into next weekend.
So is winter over? Nope. I will not rule anything out until we get into the last week of March. I'll keep you updated.
Just what I need right now, more forecasting headaches. It's another battle between the GFS and the Euro for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Regardless of which model you look at, we're going to warm up, but it's back to colder air by the end of next week.
Some of you may have seen my facebook post showing NOAA's 6-10 day outlook calling for a very good chance for much below average temperatures. We're not done with winter. I'm not saying it's going to snow, but I'm not ruling anything out at this point. Remember, it's still winter and I have seen big snows in Arkansas throughout the month of March. Once we get to the middle to end of the month, chances decrease rapidly. With that said, does anyone remember what happened in northwest Arkansas last May? Anyway, we won't go there.
We have two systems to watch next week. One Tuesday and another one Wednesday. The GFS is ho hum about all this, but does return us to cooler air by the end of next week. The European on the other hand brings a wave of rain Tuesday and a more significant wave Wednesday. The system coming in Wednesday is quite strong on the Euro and as it moves to the east, it pulls cold air in with the upper level low moving through as well. This opens the window to a swath of something frozen, especially for northern Arkansas. The GFS wants nothing to do with that. I'm not saying it's going to snow, but it's something to watch next week.
With all that said, the track record of the European model this winter in the long range has NOT been as good as the GFS so we'll see what happens and I'll keep you updated.
The following maps are from weatherbell.com
|By late Wednesday, the GFS shoots the surface low well east like the Euro, but again, it's much weaker and the upper wave is weaker too. It's getting cooler, but nothing like the Euro and there's NO frozen precip.|