Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Super Steamy To Considerably Cooler

Some places in the state had very significant rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, especially around Polk county.  Using the Fort Smith radar, since it is closer than Little Rock's radar, rainfall estimates are around 6-8 inches.   Ground observations indicate the lower end of that verifying and that's still very significant!  This latest round of rain along with the wet spring and early summer may play a part in our temperatures this weekend into next week.

The sun's energy will focus on evaporation instead of entirely heating us up.  Once the soil moisture is gone, the solar heat will do a much more efficient job in heating the air.  However, that moisture in the air will make it feel like at least 100 degrees and possibly even higher due to the very high surface moisture.  As of Wednesday the Global Forecasting System (GFS) shows highs around 96 to 97 degrees.  Due to the recent soil moisture, I suspect actual highs to be a tad cooler.  Don't misunderstand me, it's going to be hot and steamy.  However, relief isn't too far away.  It seems that has been the trend this summer so far, we have a burst of heat, then we get some relief.  The jet stream will buckle and undergo amplification next week with the hot ridge of high pressure moving into the western United States and a trough developing over the central and east.  This will send a front to the south.  The question that can't be answered at this point is, how far south?  Arkansas will be located on the back end of the trough which means a northwesterly wind flow will be situated over the region.  This type of pattern is very conducive to multiple disturbances and rounds of rain/storms.  The surface front will act as a focus for the heaviest precipitation, but where that will be located is debatable.  Bottom line, this isn't your typical July pattern and it looks very active.

I have a few charts below and some are courtesy of

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