I know many of you have been wondering what this winter may bring Arkansas this year and I have some insight for you. First of all, we specialize in bringing you a forecast over the next 7 days. There are companies out there in the private sector along with NOAA (Federal government) who specialize in seasonal forecasting.
I have been paying a lot of attention to one of those companies, "WeatherBell Analytics" ( www.weatherbell.com ). They have done a fantastic job over the past year. They nailed the forecast last fall, winter, spring, summer, tropical, and so far this fall. I think it would be wise to listen to what they are saying for this winter.
Their Chief Meteorologist, Joe Bastardi, has been talking about a weak El Nino along with a very prominent area of above average sea surface temperatures over the northern Pacific. Why is that important? It helps promote a ridge of high pressure over Alaska. That dislodges the cold air and sends it south over the United States. That's basically what happened last winter when we had several bouts of very cold air.
Below is the forecast I put on the air Sunday September 14th.