Friday, December 12, 2014

Fun and Games Next Week

There's little doubt the 2nd half of December will be stormier than the first 2 weeks.  The system coming in on Sunday night and Monday still looks like rain and a few storms.  The new European model indicates another potent system by the middle to end of next week.  An initial surge of moisture next Wednesday and Thursday could bring a cold rain and MAYBE something else across the north.  This video goes over that possibility.

1 comment:

Bruce Wayne said...

Hey Todd,
Could you explain why the ECMWF is going hardcore with the winter precipitation on the 12z runs but on the 00z runs it’s taking it out? For example, the 12z run of today (12-12-14) shows a mess with either an ice storm or really heavy sleet for the northern 1/3rd to ½ of the state while snowfall totals of nearly a foot for northwest to north-central Arkansas but that isn’t taking into account the 850 MB (5,000 feet temperatures being just a hair above freezing while the rest of the atmosphere is below freezing). The original GFS and the GFS Beta and the Canadian aren’t showing anything like this for Arkansas and there again as of the last several model runs over the past several days, the ECMWF’s at 00z isn’t showing it so which one should be bought? I know the 00z has the tendency to be a little warmer because it’s running data from 6 PM while the 12z is running data from 6 AM but the differences shouldn’t be this great in the best model out there. Your opinion would be appreciated. Also, for those wanting free ECMWF data check out and click on the little gear thing that shows the GFS (Model Data). It will also show NAM, RUC, and ECMWF. It has a full array of ECMWF products for free but only goes out to 180 hours so that’s the only drawback. Thanks again and please keep us posted!

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