Alright... maybe not madness, but I like alliteration! It's Wednesday December 10th and we're now 5 days out from the Monday system and I don't like what I see (for snow lovers). It seems as if everything is converging on a northerly track of the strong upper low which means the chance for any wintry weather is gone. This can of course change, but I never wanted you to get your hopes up.
An adjustment a little further south and we can have a new ballgame, but you can't deny what all the data says. At this time, it looks like we'll have a round of rain and a few thunderstorms. Instability is really lacking so the severe threat is low. There's a chance we'll get "dry slotted" following the initial surge of moisture. All this means is a push of dry, southwesterly winds for a period of time. It usually only lasts a few hours at most. Then moisture may start to wrap around and temperatures begin to fall, clouds move back in, and a few showers can be expected, especially for areas closer to the upper low. At this time, it appears there could be snow, but the best chance will be north of the state.
Now that takes us into the last 2 weeks of the month. I really think we are going to go into a colder pattern the last 10 days with an active storm track. This does NOT mean snow, but it's a start in the right direction after the mild weather we have been having. I see a ridge building along the west coast into western Canada. This will help dislodge the cold air and send it south. At the same time, the southern jet may get involved and send a series of storm system across the country. Again, it doesn't mean wintry weather, but you at least we may have something to watch!
|The GFS is further south of the Euro late Monday, but it's still wayyyyyyy too far north for any wintry weather.|
In summary, we are still 5 days out from this potent low, but all signs are pointing to plain rain and a few rumbles of thunder. Of course this can change, but I have my doubts. Let's just be patient and wait until the last 10 days of this month. Winter hasn't even officially started yet so there's still plenty of opportunity.