Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Snow Lovers Growing Restless
1:30 PM Wednesday Update.... JimmyLee42 brings up a very good point in the comment section...
"Todd-That 3.5 inches of snow avg for Little Rock is at a low point probably since it includes the two decades of the 90's and the 2000's in which we had a relative snow drought. As you know the average is based on the previous three complete decades and that would include those two. For example, the three decades of the 60's,70's, and 80's our average in LR was 6.7 inches/yr for those thirty years and a 9 inch yearly average for the decade of the 60's alone."
I can't even begin to tell you how many people have stopped to ask where all the cold and snow is? This is likely in response to the winter forecast I shared with you from the company, weatherbell.com.
I chose their forecast because their track record over the past couple years has been very, very good and their reasoning is strong. I fully admit I don't specialize in long range forecasts and I try to stick to a 7-10 day outlook.
I think there are a couple things going on here. First, we had that snow in November so the perception was this entire winter was going to rock and roll. Next, the past 2 Decembers have brought significant snow and ice events. We have to remember, the bulk of our snow usually doesn't arrive until January and February. Sometimes that can even continue into March.
The Weatherbell.com forecast calls for snow to be 133% of average. Remember, our average snowfall is only around 3.5 inches. 133% of that comes out to a little more than 4.5 inches. We can get that in just a few short hours around here. Also remember, not all long range forecasts are perfect. The long range forecast put out by weatherbell.com is for the months of December, January, and February. We have plenty of time to get cold and snow into the Natural State.
As you know from my previous blog post, I do think it will get colder late next week around Christmas time. When I say cold, I do not mean anything extreme. The pattern becomes more entrenched as we head towards the end of the month and I do think it will grow colder. My advice, be patient. It will happen. No one wants snow more than me and I'm analyzing the data all the time and will let you know what it shows.
Once again, I can't thank all of you enough for getting your in-depth information on the Arkansas Weather Blog. I love sharing my passion for the weather with all of you and look forward to fun and games as we get deeper into winter.
Posted by Todd Yakoubian on Tuesday, December 16, 2014