Read the post below and you know about "wiggle room". The forecast is never 100% until after it happens in the world of weather. I'm going to have to tweak my forecast a little to include a little snow, but I think mainly north late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Right now, I still think there will not be a white Christmas, but I reserve the right to have "wiggle room". LOL
I mentioned how horrible the models have been in the medium to long range and I'm going to give you a classic example below with this situation coming up Tuesday into Wednesday morning. It should be mentioned, the models usually struggle this time of year anyway.
How do I think this will all play out? Temperatures will go well above average Monday ahead of the cold front. Rain will increase during the day and continue into Tuesday. The high Tuesday will be set early with falling temperatures into the 30s and 40s late. As the system starts to exit, moisture may wrap in from the north and the rain COULD change to some wet snow, but mainly north. This would be brief and finished by Wednesday morning. The American Global Forecasting System (GFS) is the most aggressive with this and the European is not. The GFS brings flakes as far south as central Arkansas, but the Euro keeps most of it into Missouri. I'll take a compromise between the two and say any brief transition will be mainly northern Arkansas, but given the variability in the data, let's watch this carefully.
Regardless, Christmas will be dry and cool/mild with highs in the 50s to near 60. A new front arrives Friday into Saturday with another shot of cool air.
|Here's the GFS run from this Saturday morning valid at the same time. WOW! That's different and has major implications in the forecast. The trough is carved right over the central United States and would bring us more unsettled weather.|
|Check out the new experimental GFS. This may have the best idea. It's faster with the storm and only has the change over for northern Arkansas late Tuesday.|