Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Thaw Ending. Big Drop In Temperature Coming

9:30PM Tuesday Update... you may have seen my post on social media about the new NAM this evening.  It is trending colder with more precipitation coming north.  I don't buy into this just yet, but it has my attention and forecast changes are possible.  I think it's likely the higher elevations of western Arkansas will see flakes fly.  The biggest concern for me are the surface temperatures as the lowest portion of the atmosphere should be above freezing, BUT further up, it's very cold.  It would be possible for some of those flakes to reach the ground, especially if precip. rates are high enough.   Also, ground temperatures are warm due to highs near 70 recently.  That's something else coming into play.   Still plenty of time to watch this unfold and I'll keep you updated.

This is the NAM Thursday afternoon courtesy of weatherbell.com.  Look at that 35 degree line (blue) circling western Arkansas.  It's possible for it to snow with temperatures just above freezing if readings in the upper levels are very cold.  I'll keep you updated.


After highs near 70 degrees Sunday and Monday, new data has highs only in the low to mid 40s Thursday with rain.  The system we have been tracking for more than a week is trending north.  A week ago it looked like it would bring precipitation, then the models moved it south and it looked dry.  Over the past several computer model runs, there's a clear trend to the north so precipitation is back in the forecast.  Unfortunately, the COULD turn out to be one of those "waste of moisture" events.

This video explains the possibilities and the potential for a parade of cold fronts.  It's a little lengthy, but loaded with information!

1 comment:

Greg Reddin said...

Like Bastardi says: "enjoy the weather; it's the only weather you got." It's funny how weather patterns work. Just think of the last few winters: '08 was the winter of storms, '09 was the winter of snow, '11 was warm and dry, last year was cold with several winter storms. This year has been roller coaster temps with lots of cold rain. You can almost predict what it's going to do based on what it's been doing. It's really fascinating to me - even if it's not the pattern I'd prefer.

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