Tuesday, January 20, 2015
Thaw Ending. Big Drop In Temperature Coming
9:30PM Tuesday Update... you may have seen my post on social media about the new NAM this evening. It is trending colder with more precipitation coming north. I don't buy into this just yet, but it has my attention and forecast changes are possible. I think it's likely the higher elevations of western Arkansas will see flakes fly. The biggest concern for me are the surface temperatures as the lowest portion of the atmosphere should be above freezing, BUT further up, it's very cold. It would be possible for some of those flakes to reach the ground, especially if precip. rates are high enough. Also, ground temperatures are warm due to highs near 70 recently. That's something else coming into play. Still plenty of time to watch this unfold and I'll keep you updated.
After highs near 70 degrees Sunday and Monday, new data has highs only in the low to mid 40s Thursday with rain. The system we have been tracking for more than a week is trending north. A week ago it looked like it would bring precipitation, then the models moved it south and it looked dry. Over the past several computer model runs, there's a clear trend to the north so precipitation is back in the forecast. Unfortunately, the COULD turn out to be one of those "waste of moisture" events.
This video explains the possibilities and the potential for a parade of cold fronts. It's a little lengthy, but loaded with information!
Posted by Todd Yakoubian on Tuesday, January 20, 2015