Tuesday, April 07, 2015

Severe Weather Threat Thursday


It's something I talked about this weekend on the air.  The threat for severe weather is there Thursday. I see this as a typical round of spring storms coming through the state and that does mean the threat for wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes.  There are still a few uncertainties on how this exactly unfolds.  For instance, how much cloud cover will we have throughout the day?  That COULD limit instability.  If we break out into sunshine, that's not good as it destabilizes the atmosphere.

Also, the track of the storm will be well north of the state.  Around here, we'll have to watch for areas where surface winds "back".  That simply means they come out of the southeast while winds aloft change with height to the southwest.  This can enhance a tornado threat over a particular area.  All in all, at this time, I do not expect a huge outbreak.  Remember, it's only Tuesday and things can always change.

One other threat will be heavy rainfall.  Some of these storms could easily drop 1-2 inches of rain in a short amount of time.  The ground is still saturated and this could cause isolated flooding.

I think most of the activity will move east of the Mississippi River early Friday morning allowing cooler and drier air to move into the state.

The model maps below are courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire state in a "slight" risk for severe weather.
This will not be perfect whatsoever, but the NAM does indicate areas of showers and storms around 4PM Thursday afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary.
More showers and storms will be possible with the actual front Friday morning between midnight and 3AM.
As a percentage of average, rainfall has been well above over the past 30 days across southwest, central, and northern Arkansas.  There are a few areas lacking rainfall and that's easily seen over far northwest Arkansas and east central areas. 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Typically, the severe weather season starts in the deep south and moves northward. It appears that it started a little north this year. Now it is pushing even further north. Do you see this pattern also? Do you think this is going to be the trend?