As mentioned here a couple days ago, brief tornadoes will be possible along and east of the track. These are not your typical tornadoes and they can develop with little warning. They are usually not too strong, but any tornado can cause injury or death. We really need to watch this, especially across western Arkansas. Once again, the threat is low, but it is there! Eastern Arkansas will see little if any rainfall out of this, UNLESS the track shifts.
One more thing to watch... a miniature heat wave next week. I think highs could get close to 100 degrees with heat index values much higher. A heat advisory may be issued for the first time this year, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. Let's get past "Bill" first.
|The NAM through Friday afternoon shows almost the same thing. Heaviest rain north and west with little southeast.|
|The European model shows up to 5'' or more over eastern OK... NOT GOOD!!! Western Arkansas could see 3-5'' if the Euro is correct. Once again, little if any southeast.|
|The manual progs from the Weather Prediction Center indicates a swath of heavy rainfall over western and northwestern Arkansas with little if any east. The forecast is coming together and there's a high degree in confidence at this point.|