Wednesday, October 07, 2015

Got Rain?!

Hope you had a chance to watch the video in the previous post with Weatherbell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi.  To summarize Joe, he's expecting temperatures well below average and snowfall above average.  It's a good idea to put the snowfall forecast in some perspective.  Little Rock has an snowfall average of 3.5''.  Joe is predicting snow to be around 150-200% of average.  That's around 5-7 inches.  We can get that in only a few short hours around here.  He also believes there's a good chance December will feature above average temperatures with a much colder pattern evolving January through March.  Why do I talk about Joe so much?  He has hit many more seasonal forecasts than he's missed.

Now onto a personal note, I'm moving.  Not away from Little Rock.  I don't want to move away from home.  When my wife and I moved back here 10 years ago, we got a house that was great for the two of us.  Then 2 little boys came along and all the things Christmas and birthdays bring.  We needed a little more space so we found something just a few miles away.   That means I will have video blogs from a new office.  That should be interesting.  Right now, the walls in that office are purple.  It's not bad, but I have some work on it.  It's exciting and tiring as many of you know.

Now onto the subject of this post, we need rain!!!  I don't think we are in a long term drought and we should begin to come out of this.  In an El Nino, we typically have above average precipitation.  When that pattern evolves is a good question.  I just don't see it anytime soon.  We have a weak front with small rain chances Friday.  Some places may see up to .25'' of rainfall, but we'll have a quick return to dry weather.  At least Race For The Cure looks good weatherwise.  Another front will move through the state Monday night, but will have hardly any moisture with it.  I have been looking at long range models and they continue to indicate above average temperatures through the middle of the month and maybe beyond.

Never fear, the weather will change.  Unfortunately, you really have to be careful with what you ask for around here.  You want rain?  Mother Nature can over deliver sometimes.

Below is the Climate Prediction Center's precipitation forecast for October, November, and December.  According to it, the odds tilt to above average precipitation.  During this 3 month time period, that's around 15 inches.  BTW, the Little Rock airport has only received .88'' of rain since July 16th.  We need rain, just don't bring it all at once Mother Nature!

NOAA 3 month precipitation outlook October through December

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