The warm weather people will like it but it doesn't seem like there will be much winter to speak of this year. The warm periods have far outnumbered the colder periods in both duration & intensity this year. I don't see a long enough cold period to produce much winter precip. The snow in the Metro was pretty significant but didn't seem to affect most other areas at all. It was what I like to call a "nonevent." Maybe some late February magic but the trends have not been favorable.
Well, Joe Bastardi really got it wrong! He stated that the temps would be below average this winter and that we would have +150% more snow. It's been totally opposite his predictions! Don't believe I will count of his long-range forecast in the future.
I'm sure he will be the first to admit he was wrong. There's no doubt he will miss his temperature outlook, however, Little Rock is almost 200% of average in terms of snowfall. Other places in the state have NOT seen snow and there's still time. So while he was far from perfect on the temperature aspect, let's wait and see on the snowfall. I will take his prediction over many others anytime including NOAA.
I don't think we should criticize forecasters when they get it wrong. While some weather models can be very accurate at times, it is my opinion from the research I have performed, that, even some of the most modern models still require a lot of new experimental data to calibrate the model to allow it to better predict. At the end of the day, however, I believe macroscopic weather phenomena have been shown to be chaotic. This means that the chances of long range predictions are pathetically small. It is the nature of the mathetmatics that governs the amazing atmospheric physics behind the weather.Having said that, I am skeptical of long range forecasting, namely due to my above reasoning. However, models do continue to improve!
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