Friday, October 14, 2016

Mother Nature Slaps Us In The Face With Temperature Roller Coaster

Sniffling, wheezing, coughing, and sneezing... blame it on Arkansas weather I guess.  We had temperatures over the past few days in the 80s, now 60s with much needed rainfall.  This is just an island of cool in a sea of warmth lately.  The cool air will quickly leave and a strong ridge will build into the state with temperatures moving well into the 80s to near 90 next week.  Yes, we will challenge daily record high temperatures starting Sunday.

As of Friday, here are our forecast high temperatures...

Sunday 87 degrees (record high 88 in 2011)
Monday 89 degrees (record high 89 in 1953)
Tuesday 87 degrees (record high 91 in 2005)

What about after that?  That's when the models diverge.  If you believe the GFS, a deep trough will cut off over the region delivering very cool air with a chance for rain.

If you believe the Euro, the trough moves in and out with a more progressive scenario.  This would bring some rain, but temperatures not as cool.  No matter how you slice it or dice it, the beginning of the week will be very warm and end cooler.  What about Race For The Cure?  I have been working that event over the past 11 years and it has always been dry and cool.  At this time, I see no reason why that won't happen again.  It's in the long range and can change so stay tuned.

The Euro next Thursday at 500mb (20 thousand feet) shows the trough over us.  See how the solid black lines makes a "U" over mid south into the Great Lakes?  That trough is in and out with a rain chance and cooler temperatures.  

The GFS is much different.  While it brings cooler air and rain chances, it cuts off that trough over the Arklatex in its latest run.  That's the big circle in pink and red.  If this happens, it would deliver very cool, cloudy, and dreary weather lasting longer than what the Euro shows. 

Now you see the differences in the long range between the two main operational models.  Regardless, they both show warm temperatures to begin the week and much cooler air to end with rain in between.  How long and how strong that cooler air lasts is debatable.  Stay tuned!

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