Monday, January 02, 2017

Here We Go Again From Mild To Wild

During the summer, we kick back and relax as meteorologists knowing there will likely be no rest for the weary in winter and spring.  

Two very important subjects crammed into a single blog post: strong storms and the potential for wintry weather towards the end of the week.

First thing we're sure of, storms today.  Some strong to severe mostly affecting southern and southeastern Arkansas with the worst of today's activity south of the state.  I'll have simulated radar images posted below from the HRRR.  The main threats will be gusty winds and you can't ever rule out an isolated tornado.  The threat should end around mid afternoon.

We're very certain cold air will return around mid week.  The next item is the chance for wintry weather.  This is the one thing we're less sure of since it's still in the long range forecast.  HOWEVER, there's very good news for snow lovers out there.  The chance something happens looks better at this point (Monday).  It's very typical for the models to show a system like this, lose it, then bring it back.  That might be what's going on here.  

With that said, there are significant differences in the modeling this Monday morning, but BOTH point towards something happening late this week.

GFS- slower with more moisture
EURO- a bit faster with less moisture

While the Euro has had its share of issues, the GFS has been worse.  It began showing the system again during its Sunday 18Z run with a good shot of moisture and the low going south.  The 00Z came out and still had the moisture, but took the low north resulting in a cold rain.  I was hesitant about that track since that would mean getting rid of the cold air quicker and we all know arctic air is like a bad house guest.  I doesn't want to leave.

It all revolves around the strength and timing of an upper level feature which is located just offshore in the Pacific Northwest.  Once this system gets sampled well over land, I think there will be more agreement.  I would place my bets on something in-between the two models, but looking more like the Euro.

Again, the first maps below are for the storms today (Monday), then the late week wintry weather situation.  I told you!  No rest for the weary.

Slight risk for severe weather southeast AR with the greatest severe threat south and east of the state.  High winds main threat with an isolated tornado possible.

10AM simulated radar

Noon simulated radar

2PM simulated radar

4PM simulated radar
The European model at 500mb has the wave of low pressure Friday afternoon the 6th with less amplitude and a flatter look.  This would result in a quick moving area of LIGHT precipitation.

The erratic GFS, run 4 times a day with 4 different solutions, has a more amplified look late Friday and is slower compared to the Euro.  This would not arrive until later Friday into Saturday.  The more amplified this is, the more precip it could bring.

Just a computer model and NOT a forecast.  The Euro shows widespread LIGHT snow amounts generally 1'' or less with slightly higher amounts far north.

The GFS on the other hand with a stronger wave at 500mb cranks out more moisture, especially north.  While snow lovers are warming up to the GFS, I urge caution with this model.  Remember, these are NOT forecasts, but guidance into making a forecast.

We are very certain about cold weather.  Look at the Euro temperatures at noon Friday. BIG BRRRRRR

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