Saturday, March 11, 2017

Update... March Mashed Potato Snow

Every storm system of this type ends up throwing curve balls and this one has already thrown 2.  First, I woke up this morning and saw the radar was lit up with scattered thunderstorms and some contained small hail.  None of it was severe and I don't expect that. 

The next, Meteorologist Ryan Vaughan tweeted a picture of snow out of Tennessee and he made a great point.  Those areas have been just as warm as us and the snow covered the ground easily.  However, much of that occurred at night which made that snow more conducive to sticking.  With that said, some of this snow will occur tonight after a chilly day.  So that's in the back of my mind.

I really don't have much in the way of changes to this forecast.  Over the past few days we have talked about this possibility.  IF anything sticks, it will be a heavy wet snow mainly on grassy surfaces and exposed objects across northern Arkansas.  This heavy, wet, clumpy snow will resemble mashed potatoes (Hungry Jack?) covering the ground.  I think that's the best way of describing what we're looking at.

Will central Arkansas see snow or sleet?  As the precipitation comes to an end later tonight, it could.  However, temperatures should be above freezing PLUS the ground is warm.  IF there is a mix or changeover, I expect little to no accumulation.

Temperatures will go below freezing late tonight as the precip ends and a freeze warning is in effect for much of the northern half of the state including Little Rock.

Below is the HRRR simulated radar from Weatherbell.com

Future radar is not perfect, but the HRRR does do a great job giving you a general idea of what to expect. 

3PM

4PM

5PM

6PM

7PM

8PM

9PM

10PM

11PM

MIDNIGHT

1AM
HRRR total snowfall amounts.
Our forecast as of early Saturday morning.  In the purple area, those accumulations will be very minor if any.

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