Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Tropical Rain

Last Saturday we started to see the possibility for a tropical system to affect Arkansas.  It's looking more and more likely at least some areas of Arkansas could see rainfall and it could be quite heavy in spots.

Do not focus on whether or not this becomes "Cindy".  That's not the issue for us.  The main threat for Arkansas will be heavy rainfall and at this time it appears the heaviest will fall across southern and eastern Arkansas.  It's along and east of the track that is favored for plenty of wet weather later Thursday and especially on Friday.  This is all assuming the current path continues.

At this time, it looks like this system will make landfall just west of the Louisiana/Texas border.  Then it should lift north then east.  This is a favored path to bring remnant rainfall to the state.

Many times with tropical remnants, weak and brief tornadoes can spin up.  This is a possibility, but I think it's rather low.

The next big weather story will be an unusually strong cold front arriving this weekend with more rainfall followed by a blast of much cooler/drier air.  I'll have a new blog about that later!  Is this summer?


This is the early Tuesday morning track from the National Hurricane Center.  There are signs it may make landfall a bit further to the west.
EURO rainfall amounts show the heaviest rain will fall along and east of the track through the SE 1/2 of Arkansas.

The GFS is on the same page with the heaviest south and east.  Lesser amounts west and north.

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