Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Cold Easter Sunday. NOT An April Fools Joke

You'll need a jacket or coat Easter Sunday and even an umbrella at times.  If you follow me on Twitter, you know there's been some "hub bub" about snow on Easter Sunday according to the Euro.  As I said, it's one of those things that's fun to look at on the computer models, but I seriously doubt it happens.  At one point, the Euro even painted a classic picture of a winter storm across the state.  I did not bite! The next few runs have backed off tremendously.  With that said, it's still not out of the question for a few wet snowflakes near the Missouri border.  

As of Wednesday morning, the GFS has a high temperature of 54° and the Euro of 49° so you can see where this is going now.  I think northern Arkansas has highs only in the 40s with lower 50s elsewhere.  Temperatures may even drop throughout the day.  Now the big question, what about Monday morning?  Certainly, this is the type of airmass which presents a frost/freeze danger.  However, as Lee Corso says, "NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND."  It will come down to clouds and wind.  If one of those two are present, it will be cold, but it should not drop to freezing and the frost potential goes away.  Nevertheless, we must watch this as we get closer because the potential is there.

For Little Rock, the average date of the last freeze is March 20th and the average date for the last frost is April 2nd.  APRIL 2ND!!!  Wow.  So if we do end up with a frost, it's right on schedule to be that average last day.  As I have been saying, don't plant just yet.

FYI, Easter sunrise is 6:56AM.

The following is GUIDANCE and not a forecast.  You know how much I like to use the Euro, so here it is courtesy of

12 hour rainfall ending 7AM Easter Sunday.

Rainfall from 7AM to 7PM Easter Sunday

Rainfall from 7PM Easter Sunday to 7AM Monday

The Euro continues to show some wintry weather far north Sunday night into Monday morning.  With each run of the model, it shifts the focus for snow further north.  Just a couple days ago, it was all snow and further south.  NOW, it has a mix far north.  I will continue to follow the trend and say a cold rain with maybe a few wet snowflakes near the Missouri border possible.

7AM temperatures Easter Sunday. Colder air is working into the state from north to south.  It's COLD!  Look at those 30s north and near 60 degree temps south.

Temperatures may fall a bit during the day.  By 7PM, we're in the lower 40s central with near freezing conditions far north.  The black dashed line is the freezing line.

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