Friday, October 22, 2010

Severe Possible

6 PM Saturday Update... Just wanted to give you an update on our severe threat Sunday.  As of Saturday afternoon, the entire state is under a slight risk for severe weather, but the greatest threat appears to be the southern sections of the state Sunday afternoon and evening.  This is where we may have the greatest amount of instability.  Here's the day 2 outlook from SPC.  I'll have more on the blog Sunday.

SPC day 2 outlook.
We are almost at the one year anniversary of the October 29th tornado outbreak and mother nature is reminding us of her secondary severe weather season.  While I doubt the upcoming weather situation will resemble that day one year ago, we do have to keep our eye to the sky this weekend, especially Sunday.

Our moisture levels are still very, very low and it will take awhile to reach levels which will support severe weather.  Generally, when we see dew point temperatures reach the mid and upper 50s, we really start to pay attention.  This should happen Saturday night into Sunday.  The chance for rain and storms Saturday will mainly stay across Oklahoma and far western Arkansas.  Rain and thunderstorms will increase Saturday night for other areas of the state, but this should not be too bad.  Sunday afternoon, a vigorous disturbance should approach Arkansas.  At this time, dew point temperatures are forecast to rise into the low to mid 60s.  Much of the severe aspect of this will depend on the amount of instability.  If we break out into sunshine, we will have the potential for hail, high winds, and even the risk for isolated tornadoes.  The window for the severe weather should be limited to only a few hours with this situation.  Also, wind speeds this Sunday into Monday will also be elevated.  Even with the recent rainfall, this could enhance the wildfire danger.

Storm Prediction Center places most of Arkansas in a slight risk Sunday

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

well im glad to know at least we are not going to have much of a winter in arkansas this year,says mr joe B. , and noaa, guess we can all leave our winter wardrobe packed away., plus we wont have to worry about freezing rain and snow this year. according to mr B. looks like we are going to be in spring from dec through june of next year., great news, sorry u snow lovers

Anonymous said...

intresting weather in arkansas today, in little rock saturday afternnon sunny skies beautiful weather fayetteville lightning and heavy rain looks like sunday could be intresting as more of arkansas will see rain/storms. bring on the rain i need a bunch in west little rock.a year ago this time i was hopeing it would never rain again, boy what a difference a year makes. also early in the week looked like a good portion of arkansas may get a good frost but looks like thats not going to be the case after all. this could be the year little rock sets the record for the latest freeze on record which is well into december, these are just my opinions and thanks Todd for this blog and letting people post our opinions this is so great to have.

Anonymous said...

Hey Mr. Yakoubian,
One of KATV's many fans here just wondering if you all are only expecting tomorrow, Sunday literally only a couple-hour possible window for severe storms, or if this should be an all day thing?
Thank you and the rest of the GREAT weather team for keeping all of us updated constantly during bad weather situations. Great job you all.
A DIFFERENT anonymous fan

Anonymous said...

Ok mr anonymous just because its been a mild year doesnt mean we wont have some sort of winter weather. Quite Second quessing and wait and see what happens. Im pretty sure well have a good snow or ice. Just not as early as last year. So for people who love snow and ice dont give up hope!

NOAA Winter Guidance