Friday, November 05, 2010

Chill Out!

Noon Saturday Update... It's official!  Little Rock has its first official freeze of the season with a low Saturday morning of 31 degrees.  The average date of the first freeze is November 12th so it's just a tad early.  Just a few short miles away and at a slightly higher elevation, the North Little Rock airport recorded a low temperature of 38.  This is an excellent example of cold high pressure sitting on top of the state allowing the cold, dense air to sink to the lowest elevations.  Here are a some of the coldest temperatures across the state. 

By the way, the WeatherNinja is in Norman, OK today at the National Weather Festival.  He will have a write up on his section of the blog "Ninja's Corner" later this weekend.  He met Reed Timmer of the "Dominator" and visited with some of the most well known storm chasers around the country.  I'm sure he had a great time and I look forward to seeing pictures AND video right here on the Arkansas Weather Blog!

Lows Saturday morning

While many of you have already had your first freeze of the season, others are still waiting.  Last Saturday morning, many locations dropped to 32 or even colder including the bone chilling 19 degree temperature in Gilbert, Arkansas.  Little Rock stayed just above freezing at the airport which was a classic example of the city holding in a little heat.  I remember looking at the map and seeing Little Rock at 34, but other places 3-6 degrees colder.  The computer models are very consistent in dropping temperatures into the low 30s tonight so it will be close.  Many of you will be watching the temperature at the North Little Rock airport as the winter contest is in full swing!

What about the forecast and all this talk about active weather down the road?  The cold high pressure responsible for this chilly air will move away this weekend allowing a warm up well into the 70s next week with lows in the 40s.  By the middle to end of next week, the pattern gets active again with a trough of low pressure forming in the western and central United States.  At first, we can expect to be in the warm sector with showers and thunderstorms likely, but as we go deeper into November, we may be able to get the cold air more established into the region.  This will promote rounds of cold rain and POSSIBLY talk of something else, but it's wayyyyy to far off to start that talk.  The GFS model has been giving winter weather lovers hope in the 12-16 day time frame, but it's typical of this model to do this and Ninja likes to join this model in fantasy land when it does it!



Hello Everyone, The latest run of the GFS is showing signs of what could be a cold & possibly wintry period. No,I don't like GFS as the choice of models, but over the years, I have seen it at least give some signs of what could happen. According to the GFS,EURO,CANADIAN,JMA,& a few more models, looks as if a nice snow pack will start building over the next 7-14 days, over the Northern Plains. This could be rolling out the red carpet for a few very cold airmasses. As I stated on Ninja's blog, Once we get into the 240 hour time frame, We should see the models catch on a little better. Also,The models are not going to handle the cold dense air from this far out.I hope I am wrong but the period Nov.19-30, Some people in Arkansas may see some ice, Its way to early, to know any of the details. I think alot of us is thinking along the same lines. We Shall See... Bob

Drake said...

Quote from Todd a while back: "GFS= Great Forecasting System"

Kevin Conant said...

I thought the period...November 15 through 19th

jimmylee42 said...

Hello Saturday fallback clock setters! Someone asked about early snowfall records for our area. At Little Rock the earliest snow was a trace on October 29th 1925 and 1993. The earliest measurable snow was .4 inches on November 2nd 1951.

At the North Little Rock station the earliest snow and measurable was October 29th 1993 at .2 inches. I found this info at the NWS Little Rock.

Anonymous said...

hi this is Sherry does anyone know the earliest date an what year it was when Little Rock had at least one inch of snow.

jimmylee42 said...


The earliest day for a 1 inch snow was November 9th 1892 at 2.5" at the Little Rock station at that time. November 7th 1991 was the earliest at NLR station. It was 1.3". That same day LR only had a trace

Bimini Butterfly said...

Im so excited for some cooler weather! Great to see ya today Todd! Great job on the blog!

Anonymous said...

I wonder if the models are hinting at someting thios far out. Maybe it will be significant. Ive noticed that when the models do this. Is it gona be more snow than ice? Or more Freezing rain than snow?

Anonymous said...

thanks jimmylee42 for your answer that is nice to know. i sure hope we get a good snow in little rock this year like we did in feb this year that 8 inhes was fun to play in, and my kids enjoyed the days out of sherry from west little rock.

Weatherclipper said...

Todd and Snowbirdbob, Great interview! I enjoyed listening and learning more about Bob!

It does look like we are in a progressive pattern and the door to the arctic does look to open up toward the end of the month. We will just have to wait and see how it plays out. It’s fun to have something to look forward to in the weather department. I agree with Snowbirdbob that winter will come early this year and we will have to watch for icy mix through early January. After that all bets are off. We will have an extreme pattern all winter and that may include severe weather and a couple of bouts of cold wintery weather too.

The weather is always the weather!

Bobby Powers a.k.a weatherclippper