|12Z Futurecast run from Monday|
Now for an update on next weekend and beyond. The Euro last night brings the next batch of arctic air into the state Monday (Feb. 1st) with waves of moisture arriving from the southwest. The late run of the GFS yesterday was not showing much in the way of precip. but now the new morning run is showing a set up more conducive to bringing in the moisture. Still enough disagreement to keep this a low confidence forecast in this time range... stay tuned.
8:25 AM Monday Update... I decided not to start a new post so you can see the possibilities in the video blog discussion below. Here we are just 24-36 hours away from this new storm deepening over the mid south and the models are not yet in agreement. To me the question is how much of the precipitation shield works to the northwest and what's the temperature at the surface. The UKMET, CMC, and the JMA all bring the precipitation further to the NW than the more widely used modeling GFS and NAM. Even if the precip. works further to the NW Tuesday, surface temperatures could be too warm for anything but rainfall. However, many of you know what a strong area of low pressure aloft can do. There can be enough cooling to bring wintry precipitation to the ground and give forecasters a BIG headache. Even the National Weather Service forecasts out of Little Rock and Memphis are accounting for at least a little frozen precipitation on the northern fringe, especially late Tuesday. Even if nothing happens with this, I still find the entire situation amazing to watch considering the development of this storm is several hundred miles away from what the models were showing just a couple of days ago.
Now onto the remainder of the forecast. The period Tuesday through Thursday still looks cool with temperatures running below average. A new arctic boundary will make a dive towards Arkansas next weekend, BUT ahead of it, we could see some STRONG warming Friday. We have been talking about this here on the blog for several days now. The 00Z GFS is even taking temperatures into the 60s in Little Rock Friday. Now there are differences in the modeling as to how the next storm will unfold or will not unfold at all.
The GFS has an overpowering northwesterly wind flow which keeps the state dry and cold next week. The Euro has a different scenario all together. This model brings a strong area of low pressure into the southwestern United States and develops a southwesterly flow aloft. This would significantly slow down the intrusion of any arctic air..HOWEVER, you must always remember, the shallow nature of dense, arctic air usually ends up further south than the data forecasts. The Euro seems to want to eject pieces of energy in the southwesterly flow and bring precipitation chances into the state during the first couple of days of February. So there are differences which is very typical in the long range. While there will remain uncertainty, you can be certain we'll be here every step of the way to figure out mother nature's next move!!!!