The A/C Finally Gets A Break!

Confidence is high we will get our first feel of fall next week.  The picture is becoming clearer how this will all unfold as Tropical Storm "Lee" churns in the Gulf of Mexico.  I know portions of the state need rain, especially the south, but we don't want any part of the incredible deluge portions of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi will receive over the next few days.  Some data suggests more than 10'' of rain will fall, and in some places it could exceed 20''.  That's devastating.  While I was driving back from Florida earlier in the week, we drove through northeastern Louisiana and southern Arkansas.  It's bone dry!  Farmers had their tractors in the fields and dust was everywhere.  I saw 4 incredible looking dust devils while driving along I-20 near Tallulah. 

The big question yet to be answered is how far north the heavy rain shield will advance into Arkansas or does it even make it into the state.  Right now, I think there's going to be a very strong gradient between the heavy tropical rain and the dry air.  This could be the type of situation where some places get several inches while just 20-40 miles away, rainfall amounts will be very low or non-existent.

At the same time Lee comes out of the Gulf, a front will sweep in from the north.  High pressure building into the state will funnel in a northeasterly wind flow.  This will drop temperatures and humidity values to their lowest levels in months!  Winds should be brisk and out of the north-northeast around 20 mph.  It's very likely to have highs at the beginning of next week in the 70s and lows in the 50s.  If the winds diminish enough, northern Arkansas could see the first 40s of the season.  This will all come almost exactly one month after having the hottest day EVER in Little Rock (114 degrees).  Get excited!  I know I can't wait!  Check out the maps below.

The NAM indicates the rainfall from Lee will mainly affect areas east and southeast of Arkansas.

The GFS paints a different picture.  Some areas of southeast Arkansas into east central areas could see more than 5''.

By next Tuesday, Lee will be moving away as high pressure builds in from the north.  The difference in pressure will create a north-northeasterly wind which will be refreshing!