Friday, September 09, 2011

Temperature Roller Coaster

Thanks Arkansas!  We hit another big milestone here on the blog a few days ago.... 900,000 hits since July of 2010.  I think we should surpass 1 million within the next 2 months.  I can't thank you enough for reading our weather blog!

There really hasn't been much to blog about lately and I'm not complaining.  We deserve some quiet and nice weather!  Usually this is the time of year when we can go back and forth with our temperatures as the seasons fight it out.  Cold air has been building at the higher latitudes and the jet stream is getting energized as it battles the remaining hot air of summer.  Of course, the cooler air wins eventually, but it results in a temperature roller coaster of sorts.  We will warm up to around 90 again next week, but it shouldn't last too long as yet another frontal boundary delivers another shot of pleasant fall air.  I took a quick look at the long range GFS numbers and it indicates we'll be back into the 70s for highs by next Thursday

Let's talk about "Nate".  On Thursday, there was some concern he would turn north and affect the southern United States.  The picture became clearer last night and it appears the storm will make a turn to the west and affect Mexico.  I know many in Texas were hoping from rain, but a tropical system can make you go from extreme drought to extreme flooding.

This is the European model from Thursday night and it's valid for late next Wednesday.  This indicates a front pressing through the state with Canadian high pressure building into the Dakotas.  This will bring a much cooler easterly to northeasterly wind flow at the surface.  Early week temperatures in the 90s will drop 15-20 degrees by Thursday.
24 hours later on Thursday, the high is really building into the state with very nice weather!

The Tropical Prediction Center shows Nate moving into Mexico as a Hurricane late in the weekend.

1 comment:

Snowbirdbob said...

Hello Everyone, I am going to give you my 2011/2012 Winter Weather Outlook.
1.Don't stock up on firewood based off of my forecast.
2. Don't count on your electric bill being High.
3.Don't Blame me at your location if you receive a major ice storm or dont get any snow..lol
4. This is my long-range forecast & I am sticking to it no matter what the outcome.
5. My forecast last year turned out great, I was a month off on the Central & Soutnern Sections of Arkansas getting there turn for big winter weather events, But boy did they get hammered..

Nov.2011 I look to see near normal temps in Central & Southern Sections,& slightly below normal for northern sections.As far as precip, I see above normal precip for Central & Southern Sections & Near normal for Northern Sections. I look for some late Nov. Ice in Northern Sections of the state, Which could lead to effect areas as far south as the Conway, Russellville, & Searcy areas, But nothing major.

Dec. 2011 I am calling out this month for a major Arctic Outbreak in the Dec. 16-31..I look for near normal temps for the entire state Dec.1-15. I am also calling this month out for major winter weather events..Dec.16-31 Well-Below average temps for the entire state. Big Dec. Ice for Central & Southern Sections..As Weather Ninja says..Ice..Ice Baby..For you in northern Ark,A couple of minor snow events..But,not your turn YET!!

Jan.2012 Jan.1-15 I look for Well-Below normal Temps for the entire state..Jan.16-31 Temps rebound to near normal..You in northern Ark..Watch out this year..Its your time agian for Big Snow Events..

Feb.2012 This is the month for all sorts of suprises.. Below Normal for the entire state..Look out agian for Central & Southern Sections for Big Feb. Ice..A couple of big snow events for Northern Sections..

DECEMBER 2011 15-31..Major Cold Outbreaks.. Lingering low level cold air could lead to Major Ice..
Hopefully all Snow!!

As Always..We Shall See??!!

SnowbirdBob

NOAA Winter Guidance