Monday, November 21, 2011

More Wild, Wacky Weather


Just when you thought Arkansas weather couldn't get any crazier, just wait until you see what some of the computer model guidance says could happen next weekend into the following week.  I want to caution you, the purpose of this blog is not to necessarily make a forecast, but to lay out all the possibilities as we approach big weather events.

At this time, it appears a front will enter the state late Friday into early Saturday with another round of showers and thunderstorms.  This will be followed by cooler air as a trough of low pressure aloft closes off and spins in the region.  Where this upper low locates itself is crucial in our forecasting.  One thing is for sure, it will get colder, but will it come with any precipitation?  As this massive circulation spins counterclockwise, it will spiral pieces of energy around its periphery like spokes on a tire.  If the air is cold enough, it could fall as something frozen.  This type of pattern does NOT bring heavy amounts of precipitation whatsoever.  It typically brings sprinkles/light showers or even snow flurries.  Again, this is not a set up for anything major.  I think the bigger story will be the colder air next week.

Take a look at the models below and I'll explain.

This is the European model valid next Monday morning.  This is showing the upper air pattern at a level called 500 mb.  Notice the big red area from Wisconsin down to the southeast. (yes, even the weather models like Razorback red).  This is the upper level area of low pressure.  In the northern hemisphere, low pressure will rotate counterclockwise.  With Arkansas on the western side of it, the flow aloft has a northerly component.  This is typically dry and cold.  However, with pieces of energy spinning around the parent low, it can spark off a few light snow showers or light rain showers.  The most likely location would be closer to the low over northeastern Arkansas
This is the Canadian for the same time period.  It basically shows the same thing, but with a different position.
This is the GFS at the same time period indicating the upper low northeast of the state.  Again, if there's any precipitation, the most likely location would be northern and northeastern Arkansas.  Regardless of which model you look at, this will drive a cold front through the state and bring some chilly and breezy weather next week.


Anonymous said...

Todd, its not gonna get cold you are dreming look outside an see it is warm and thats the way its gonna stay. we won't get no snow this winter because it was hot durning the summer and that means warm winter. Ninja doesnt no what he is talking about an snowbird bill always calls for snow but it never happens

Just go and believe it when Hugh says it cause if you think its gonna snow this year you must be dum or something. i have more faith that we will see sever weather and no snow or ice.

This is Hugh an you herd it here first

Anonymous said...

Hi everyone and Todd. This is the one and only Hugh. Looks like the guy above this post is trying to steal my thunder. LOL anyway this guy or gal who posted above me must not be the brightest tool in the shed. Why do you ask, because my two year old little girl can spell better then that. Second they dont realize Todd can check and see who is sending these messages and he knows where they are coming from and from what computer. Anyway lets get on to weather. This system or possible system or spokes of energy is nothing. Its the kind of deal where you have to stand outside by something real dark, like a car and stand there and be like OH I SEE A FLAKE and five minutes say OH MY WAS THAT A SNOWFLAKE.In reality it was someone burning trash next door and it was a ash flying through the air. As far as the cold coming next week, cant be to cold on channel 7 weather there was not even one low temperature at freezing or below. COULD WE SEE THE LATEST FREEZE EVER IN LITTLE ROCK WEATHER HISTORY? WE SHALL SEE

SnowbirdBob said...

Hey Hugh or Whoever you are..That's SnowBirdBob Not BILL..LOL.. You struck a nerve calling me the snow clown..Not really..But, saying I always call for snow..Same thing to call it like it is..Yes, I am wrong here & there but, Go back since I have been Posting on this Blog & Check my track Record..My calling for snow is around 90% accurate..Yes, I missed the Snowbird Sweet Spot on snow totals a good, I hope you get Buried by 2 feet of the white stuff..& Ninja dont know what he is talking about..He is Probably one of the Brightest Guys on the Blog besides Me :)..

This is for the True Hugh, Todd is not going to put 20's & light snow in the forecast from 7 days out..If he was that confident, I would really start worrying about call Todd..Mr. Conservative..As far as standing by the street light looking for snow flurries"which I still do at 35 years the models verify..Someone might even pick up a dusting or so..I always think every year since I am getting older, I will stop watching the models so much & looking at my street light..Chasing snow storms..But, Every year that rolls around, I am just as excited as if I were 10 thought I would drop in & say a few things..Oh, & For the of right now..I give someone in the state of Ark next weekend or Monday a 90% shot at seeing some light snow...We Shall See??

Bob Read

JasonBHampton said...

I feel the same way SNOWBOB. If there is a chance of even flurries I am most likely the first one to see it! Hopefully with a little luck I will get to see a few Sunday. Decemeber should start off cool and wet, its just a question of how cool and how wet? We should have at least 2-3 chances of some Winter weather in December and on a Avg year that is good! Id put a little bet on Arkansas seeing at least 2 Winter Weather Advisories or Warnings in December if anyone is willing to! Im thinking sleet more than snow? This is the year of Sleet/Snow.

I knew the drought would take a hit in November, but WOW! Drought is OVER.

The Wishcaster, Jason

Anonymous said...

90% chance of light snow for someone in Arkansas next weekend? Probably going to be north arkansas or around Harrison/Fayetteville, as usual. They almost always get the colder temps & more precipitation.

Anonymous said...

Oh lord, here we go, lol.


(it's me, at a different computer than normal, lol)

The NEW Arkansas Weather Blog