Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Weekend Cold Punch?

9PM Wednesday Update... The winter weather contest is now closed. We had a record number of entries and I want to thank each one of you for sending in your numbers.  Remember the contest will run from December 1st to February 29th.   I will post a full list of everyone's contest numbers soon.  Until then, HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
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Where does this upper low close off is the million dollar question?  As I have said in previous posts, this is NOT the type of situation where you get wintry precipitation, but it's not out of the question to get a few snow flurries, especially in northern and eastern Arkansas.  The closer that upper low cuts off to the state, the colder it will be with more cloud cover.  Right now, the models continues to show highs in the lower 50s Sunday into Monday, but I wouldn't be surprised if we stayed in the 40s with some clouds and wind making if feel gloomy.  This scenario would probably make it difficult to get out of the 30s across the north.  This will be a stark contrast to the 60s and 70s we've had lately!

Before this low closes off, there will be a round of heavy rain and storms Saturday.  With the ground already saturated, there will be some concern for flooding.  Hopefully, these will be fast moving which would limit the flooding threat.

The differences in the models in this time range are huge and I'm going to post a few for you to look at.

Remember, you have until 9 PM Wednesday night to enter into the winter weather contest.  If you guess a number that has already been taken, I will email you back asking for a new number.  If I don't hear back from you, you will not be entered into that particular contest.

This is the GFS 06Z run valid next Monday morning at 6AM.  The upper low is cut off over eastern Arkansas over into Mississippi and Tennessee.  This would bring a cold, raw, and cloudy day to most of the state.  There would be the possibility of light rain/snow showers, especially to the eastern and northeastern portions of the state.   Remember, this is only one model which is run 4 times a day.  It varies significantly from run to run. 
This is the same model that was run just a few hours earlier.  Look how it's further east!  This is still cold, but not as much.  There would still be a slight chance for some LIGHT precip. across the far eastern portions of the state.  I'm just posting these to show you how variable each run of the model is in this situation.
This is the overnight run of the Euro.  The purple area just east of Arkansas is the upper low.  This solution keeps most of the precipitation well east of the state.
And this is the Canadian showing the cut off over Texas.  See the forecasting challenges ahead?  I'm not buying this idea since it's so different than the other models.
And just for fun...  here's the NOGAPS.  I normally don't use this model, but I wanted to show you what it does.  The upper low is over the Great Lakes.  HUGE differences compared to the other models. So you see the range, from Texas to Michigan.  What's a 1000 miles anyway when forecasting? LOL.  This solution would just bring in a shot of cool air.  Probably highs in the mid and upper 50s.

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NOAA Winter Guidance