Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Christmas Eve Snow? It's Not Out Of The Question!

If you want to see the top 10 weather events of 2011, you can either find it in the post below or click on it in the navigation bar above.

10:20 AM Wednesday Update.... The morning run of the GFS and NAM is in now and they are still in disagreement.  Both models slow the system down this weekend.  The NAM only goes out to 84 hours, but at that time, it has more of a compact cold core low to our west.  This COULD bring precipitation late Saturday into Sunday morning.  The GFS has a different look with the wave of energy... opening it up and bringing rain showers to mainly southern Arkansas late Christmas Eve into Christmas morning.  It's obvious all the models are having a difficult time pinning down the details.  As I always say, don't get your hopes up.  The main thing to remember is that at the very least, there's something to watch.  I'll keep you updated here, facebook, and twitter.


We have a round of rain coming in Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Then we'll watch the next disturbance for Friday night into Saturday morning.  The models are not handling this system well.  I'll admit, I'm "wish-casting" a bit here and only choosing the model I like which is the NAM.  You must always be aware of these upper air features because they can easily out perform the models.  A recent example was the 2'' of snow just a couple weeks ago.  The models didn't show much of anything, but the upper air feature managed to bring its own cold air and moisture resulting in widespread snow.  I'm NOT saying that's going to happen here, but it's worth watching.  There's no arctic air on the playing field which is a big problem, but like I said, these lows bring their own cold air and can squeeze out some precipitation.  It's just a matter of where this thing tracks and how strong it is.  Regardless of what happens, temperatures will warm well above freezing Saturday and again Christmas Day so there is NO chance for a white Christmas.  The time frame to watch is Friday night into Saturday morning.  Check out the models below.

AND TWITTER @katv_weather

This is the 500mb chart from the 6Z NAM valid early Saturday morning.  Do you see that big area of orange in eastern Oklahoma?  That's the vigorous upper air feature I'm watching carefully.

The NAM is showing some precipitation across western Arkansas into eastern Oklahoma.  The blue line to the north is the 32 degree line.  So temperatures here could be slightly ABOVE freezing. Another problem if you want snow!

This is the NAM snowfall output from the 6Z run.  It shows a dusting across portions of central into western Arkansas with maybe an inch in the higher elevations of Polk, Scott, and Logan counties.  Remember, this is only 1 model and I'm wish-casting a bit here.

12 comments: said...

It would be awesome to have a white Christmas....I'd even sing about it to get it!! LOL!!

Travis said...

This could turn out to be a nice little Snow!! Will we not get 9 or 10 inches of Snow out of it No, but we could get 3 or 4 inches out of it Yes. Let's hope for a White Christmas.

JasonBHampton said...

If the GFS does as poor with this one as it did with the last two snows in Arkansas we should throw it out the rest of Winter. Ill go ahead and give my sweet spot- Mount Ida Ar. Good luck Western Arkansas, I hope you get it!

Anonymous said...

This is hugh johnon guys it aint gonna snowe here in arkansaw . The ozark moutains may see one or to fluries. Little rock will see plane raine. If anythang at all. Im not buyeing this snowe thang. U want snowe go north to witchita kansis. I dont see it all winter for centrrl arkansaw snowe that is. We had our snowe for the winter frw weaks back. Warm and mild just what noaa predectted. Global warmming is hear. Everyone gets to uo an down on each moddel. This is HuGh saying marry christmas.

Anonymous said...

I so tired of Lookin at the blog and see get 40%off this look good for the new year. Come on we get on here to look about the weather so plz stop it the cloths are ugly anyways it need to be 90% off thanks love u Todd and snowbird

Anonymous said...

I don't know who that other Hugh is but this is the reel Hugh. Quit trying to be me you imposter Hugh. I don't spell that bad and sometimes the keys get stuk on my phone or computer and it messes up my spelling. i am the real Hugh and here are my thougts. It has been warm all winter and even though we had some snow it doesnt mean its gonna snow again. Look at it has been warm and the computer models say warm for a while. if it does snow it would be in January or Febuary. Ninja showed us that any big snows won't come in December but only January or Febuary and if we get any this is when it will be. I know snowbird bill said it would be cold but look at the history of the past years and you will know it won't get cold in December but maybe January. I know snowbird wants some snow for chasin and he might have to go a far distance as theres not even any snow in the nortern US. I am praying that we dont get any sever weather since it is warm and this in a lanina system this year. and no heavy rain too we have had enough.

This is the real Hugh. Please stop pretendding to be me

Anonymous said...

Who are these peple imitaitting me. This is Hugh. I do thank arkansas will get snow this year but it want be until march. I see little rock endin up with 2 inches this year totale for the whole winter. I see hope arkansas the big winner this year with 3 inches for the hole winter. I know todd is a good weather guy but he dont knowe when the next winter storm is coming. This is hugh sining off till next time.

Todd Yakoubian said...

While there are no "sure things" in weather. You better believe, my son to be born will not be named, "Hugh." There are already too many on here. LOL

SnowbirdBob said...

Hugh, You are right, I have busted Big time on my Dec.16-31st Cold Outbreak,But, I still beleive its coming later half of Jan. & Yes, I still beleive it will be a 20 year Cold Outbreak,Your right again, If I wanted to go snow chasing, I would have to hop on a jet & fly to CO or Canada, This is sad..But, I have been doing some research & found out that the last time some parts of the extreme Northern States recieved this least amount of snow you got to go back to 1899, Guess what, The most Extreme Arctic Outbreak in recorded History came in Feb. 1899, So who knows..Really?? Everyone, Winter is not over, We just started..Ninja is right about most of the big snows come in Jan. & Feb..Never know...Central Ark could be put under a Blizzard Warning with 12-20 Inches of Snow sometime now until late March..So, dont get frustrated..I know..I know.. I am just as upset as most of time is coming soon enough..As far as this weekends system, You can look at it a couple of different ways..Closed Low = Some Snow, Low Forms in the NW Gulf,draws in colder air= Moderate to Heavy Snow, Weak wave = light snow, or the dreaded NOTHING at all, Its still early so, I am not giving up hope just yet..It Christmas..Let's all be Happy & Enjoy our familys & friends...Anyway..Just thought I would put my Bust out there..I just have to get back up & try again..I promise you all, as long as I am here on this earth I will continue forecasting & enjoying the weather..

Merry Christmas Everyone & Happy New Year
Bob Read AKA" SnowbirdBob

Kevin Conant (Singing weatherman/Weather Nerd) said...

Seriously doubt any snow will fall this weekend, but an outside chance as models are still in disagreement.

Anonymous said...

Can some one tell me how much snow sw ark picked up on in jan 26/27 of 2000? and how much ice on dec 25 2000?

Michael Hook said...

SW AR picked up several inches in the Jan 27 2000 storm with an official 8.5" falling at Mena on the 27th. Other cities picked up similar amounts in SW and WCentral AR. During the ice storms of December 2000, the first storm Dec 12-13 most areas picked up at least an inch of ice although it didn't affect the roads as much, the second storm Dec 23-25 saw many areas pick up over 3" of ice especially Central SW and WCentral AR.

A side note to the Jan 27th snow, earlier in the month, actually Dec 31st 1999 the famous 'Snowbowl" in Shreveport occured in which 3-6" of snow fell across SW AR, NE TX and N LA.

Hope this helped you.

Michael Hook
AKA The WeatherNinja

NOAA Winter Guidance