Friday, December 23, 2011

It Would Be A "Christmas Miracle"!!!!

The one thing I have learned about Arkansas weather is "never say never".  Over the past week, the models have had a very difficult time handling a vigorous area of low pressure aloft over the western United States.  Even at this point, there isn't much agreement between the models.  For awhile, it looked like it would weaken and drift across Arkansas on Saturday.  Now the system looks like it could affect the state Christmas Day into Monday.

When you look the United States, there's NO arctic air in place.  So it's very difficult to get snow around here unless certain conditions develop.  The system to our west can bring its own cold air and moisture if it's strong enough and produces enough lift in the atmosphere.  Right now, most models just show chilly rain showers, but I'm watching it like a hawk.  If the low tracks a bit faster and stays strong, it would not be out of the question to see a few snowflakes at some point late Christmas Day somewhere in Arkansas.  THIS IS A LONG SHOT, but if it happened, it would truly be a Christmas miracle!  Remember, the track must be perfect, the timing must be right, and the system would need to maintain its intensity.  At this point, I would say the chance for all this happening is well less than 10% so our official forecast will only call for rain showers.

Check out the models below...

This is the 00Z run of the NAM showing the strong upper low over southwest Oklahoma at 6 PM Christmas Day.  This would need to track faster and stay strong for any hope.

This is the 06Z NAM for the same time period (6PM Christmas).  Notice how it's speeding it up a bit and has it in south central Oklahoma!  We'll watch later model runs to see if we can get it to speed up faster and track a bit further south.
This is the 00Z GFS indicating the low near the Arklatex late Christmas Day.  Better!  But will it be cold enough?  The only way is to get enough lift to cool the atmosphere near the upper low.  It's a long shot!
The 06Z GFS slows it down a bit and stretches the low out some.  Not good for snow lovers.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hmm, Todd gives snow 4% chance of falling and Snowbirdbob gives it a 90% chance?! Something's not right here...

Anonymous said...

Also, it's funny how I'm at Utah snowboarding where there is plenty of snow here, but I'm still watching weather for Arkansas quite frequently. Luckily enough I come back Sunday, so I could be just in time for a little more snow! Not to be making anyone jealous, but I snowboarded through a blizzard on the 21st. Ok, maybe a little. LOL. Be jealous :)

Anonymous said...

Didnt u say a few weeks ago todd you were not going to go by the models again if u see a low approaching from the west again. Remember TODD

Travis said...

What would be a better gift than Snow on Christmas Day? I don't know of any better ones. I hope you are right SNBB.

E.T. said...

Guys i know i am bored with the weather here in central ark. Snowbird and ninja im calling u out. Can you step your game up bring us some snow soon. This is a challenge. Ask mother nature to DUMP A FOOT of snow on LITTLE ROCK and surrounding areas. How bout one of inch of a solid sheet of ice first then the dumping of a foot of snow on top of that. I say if were gona do this lets do it right. Lets go ahead and set the all time record snowfall for one event. Since christmas is here i know this will have to come after christmas but hey it will just be a late christmas present. LOL

Anonymous said...

Look guys we may all want Snow ,but it is up to he good Lord.... Mabey Snow in Jan, Feb, and cold weather............

Octo-BRRR