When you look the United States, there's NO arctic air in place. So it's very difficult to get snow around here unless certain conditions develop. The system to our west can bring its own cold air and moisture if it's strong enough and produces enough lift in the atmosphere. Right now, most models just show chilly rain showers, but I'm watching it like a hawk. If the low tracks a bit faster and stays strong, it would not be out of the question to see a few snowflakes at some point late Christmas Day somewhere in Arkansas. THIS IS A LONG SHOT, but if it happened, it would truly be a Christmas miracle! Remember, the track must be perfect, the timing must be right, and the system would need to maintain its intensity. At this point, I would say the chance for all this happening is well less than 10% so our official forecast will only call for rain showers.
Check out the models below...
|This is the 00Z run of the NAM showing the strong upper low over southwest Oklahoma at 6 PM Christmas Day. This would need to track faster and stay strong for any hope.|
|This is the 06Z NAM for the same time period (6PM Christmas). Notice how it's speeding it up a bit and has it in south central Oklahoma! We'll watch later model runs to see if we can get it to speed up faster and track a bit further south.|
|This is the 00Z GFS indicating the low near the Arklatex late Christmas Day. Better! But will it be cold enough? The only way is to get enough lift to cool the atmosphere near the upper low. It's a long shot!|
|The 06Z GFS slows it down a bit and stretches the low out some. Not good for snow lovers.|