Thursday, December 29, 2011

Models Begin To Agree

Several days ago I showed you how forecasting in the long term can give a meteorologist big head aches.  The major long term models were in two different extreme camps.  The European model showed the coldest air of the season plummeting south with snow flurries and showers.  The American GFS model showed a weak and progressive trough bringing a glancing shot of cool air.  I took the middle of the road approach and that seems to be paying off.

The cold air arriving New Years Day will be somewhat of a shock to the system. We've probably felt colder air already this season, but before the front gets here, highs will be well into the 60s to near 70.  I think highs during the beginning of next week will stay in the 30s and 40s statewide.  It's still very interesting to look at the GFS forecast highs for next Monday and Tuesday.  They're still in the 50s!!!!  That's an error!

That dose of cold air will exit, but a northwesterly flow aloft will prevent any major warm up.  Shots of cool air will begin to arrive keeping temperatures in check. 

Many of you, like me, want snow!  I don't see any within the next 7-10 days.  You know once the models begin to show it, you'll hear it from me first! LOL

AND TWITTER @katv_weather


Raj said...

I don't see how anyone could POSSIBLY be enjoying this mild weather? I still wish it'd be 0 degrees, cloudy, foggy, windy, and dark year round.

Anonymous said...

This weather todd is boring. We have to many of these type days in spring. I think its not impossible but UNLIKELY cen ark gets anymore snow this year. Quick cool down early next week. However near 60 degrees again one week from today. No snow pack up north equals warm warm warm

Anonymous said...

I was wondering if someone could tell me what part of the state averages the most rainfall in a year? thanks