Sunday, February 12, 2012

Monday's Arkansas Slushie


I wanted to share with you our Sunday run of the model we run at Channel 7, "Futurecast".  When I came into work and looked at it, I thought it had a good handle on the situation.  Remember, we are not expecting a huge snow storm, but there will be problems and snow will accumulate.  As warm air aloft works in from the south and southwest, this will warm the upper levels of the atmosphere while the surface temperatures stay cold.  Due to this, the snow will transition to sleet and/or freezing rain at some point.  Once surface temperatures break that 32 degree mark, we'll have plain rain.  The question is, when does that happen?  According to the data Sunday,  it looks like this should happen around noon or shortly after.

As far as accumulations are concerned,  The higher you live, the greater the snow amounts will be for you.  This may be a case where downtown Little Rock gets a dusting to an inch, but the hills of west Little Rock into western Pulaski county receive 2''.  The higher elevations of west central into north central Arkansas should see 2-4'' and an isolated higher amount is possible.  Sorry south Arkansas, while I think you will see some wintry weather, you should transition to plain rain quickly and that will limit your chance for snow or ice.   Remember, we do think conditions will improve as the afternoon progresses in central Arkansas.  Northern Arkansas will stay messy most of the day as the cold air sticks around longer.  By Tuesday, this is all a distant memory as readings jump into the 40s and 50s.

Below are maps from our model, Futurecast...

Our model Futurecast indicates snow across much of western Arkansas.  The leading edge of this may have a tough time reaching the surface due to dry air at the surface and aloft.
As warmer air aloft surges to the north, the snow will change to a mixture of sleet/freezing rain.  However, northern Arkansas will stay all snow.  Notice the plain rain across southern Arkansas.
By 3 PM, Futurecast indicates a mixture is still possible across central Arkansas.  I think at this point though temperatures will be around 33 or 34 degrees.  Snow continues up north.

By 6 PM, the snow has pushed north of the state and the mixture is decreasing across northern Arkansas.  Rain is still moving through southern Arkansas

This is our forecast for what could happen Monday.  It appears the further north and west you live, the bigger the smiles on snow lovers faces!


1 comment:

snowfreak15 said...

on the 00z NAM the temperature does warm above freezing at 12hrs. but but 18hrs it has cooled off again with more moisture moving into central arkansas...

NOAA Winter Guidance