Tuesday Trouble?

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WINTER CONTEST ENDS WEDNESDAY.   CONTEST #2 UPDATE... 3394.  THE WEATHERNINJA SAYS THIS MAY COME DOWN TO AMY BRASWELL AND PAULA CUNNINGHAM.

The term "outbreak" has been used in social media circles over the past couple of days (twitter and facebook).  At some point, I would like someone to define "outbreak" because I think the meaning varies from person to person.  When I think of "outbreak", I have thoughts of numerous tornadoes with continuous on-air coverage.  I think the term is thrown around too casually without regard to relaying good information to the public.

With that said, I DON'T think this will be an "outbreak" as defined above.  At least I hope not.  You know, you can look at data all day long and lose sight of common sense.  You also have to keep in mind, Mother Nature doesn't always do what the "models" say so we always must be on guard this time of the year in Arkansas.  You plan for the worst, but hope for the best!

Now onto the potential for Tuesday trouble.  It's really Tuesday night Trouble, but I like alliteration.  The National Weather Service this morning and the Storm Prediction Center, both confirm my hesitation about calling for an outbreak.  There are limiting factors.  First of all, Tuesday will feature plenty of cloud cover with scattered showers and rumbles of thunder.  More than likely, non severe weather during the day.   This is a good thing!  You DO NOT want sunshine as these systems approach.  That only increases the instability levels with warmth at the surface.  We want to keep it as cool as possible.  Storms should begin to fire in Oklahoma and push eastward very late in the day.  All of the severe weather parameters I have looked at show the most unstable air will reside across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.  As the night continues, the environment will become less favorable for severe weather the further east you go into central and eastern Arkansas.  Does that mean you're out of the woods?  No.

I have decided NOT to post all the technical mumbo jumbo from the fancy computer models and show you something very simple.  The images below are from a hi res model showing simulated radar.  I DON'T think it will be perfect, but it may have a good general idea how this unfolds.

Again, I'll keep you updated as this can still change even though we are within the 2 day window of this event.

This is noon Tuesday showing plenty of clouds across the state and scattered showers.  A storm or two would be possible.  This is mostly non severe!  Remember, the more clouds and rain we have, the better.  This lowers surface based instability values.

By 6 PM, it's still mostly cloudy with scattered showers.  The storms we area concerned with haven't developed yet according to this model.  But they will over Oklahoma.

By midnight, the storms are over western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma.  This is when I would be concerned about severe weather with the threat being high winds, maybe some hail, and isolated tornadoes.

By 3AM, the line is pushing towards central Arkansas.  Notice the intensity is lowering.  Let's hope that happens!!!!

By 6 AM, the line has decreased even further and stretches across central Arkansas.   I don't want anyone to let their guard down though as this scenario isn't set in stone and things can change!!!!!

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Arkansas under a slight risk for some severe weather late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning.