Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Changes On The Horizon?


What a week this is so far and there's more to enjoy!  I wouldn't know though.  Andria and I are in the middle of remodeling our master bedroom and bathroom.  I've got all the windows open so I can enjoy the fresh air, but there's no getting around it, it's work!  I can only do so much as a "handy man". I can paint, install a few things, etc. but professionals are going to have to come in and do the rest.  It's really not a big job, but enough to update it!  I don't think the walls have been painted since the house was built and a new coat is making all the difference.  Blake wants to help and points out if I miss a spot.

Back to the weather.  As I said in the previous post, this week will feature near record breaking warmth with Wednesday and Thursday the most likely days in Little Rock to establish new daily record high temperatures.  By the end of the month, March 2012 will go down as one of the warmest ever in Little Rock weather history by average high, low, and monthly temperature.

Next week looks very different and active with details still to be sorted out.  Meteorologist Barry Brandt has always said that you can usually count on some sort of severe weather the first few days of April.  He's not wishing for it, it's just the reality of living and Arkansas and the time of year.  I think it's very possible to deal with some rough weather next week followed by a cool down.  The models are hinting at some chilly air trying to get back into the pattern.  When I say chilly,  I'm comparing it to where we have been.  While it's in the long range, I think it's possible to see average or slightly below average temperatures for a day or two.  What we are experiencing right now is "off the charts" warm!

Check out the maps below...

This is the overnight run of the GFS at 500 mb indicating a strong area of low pressure closing off just west of the state.  This would bring bring rain and storms next Monday and Tuesday.  Remember, DON'T TRUST THE DETAILS, but look at where the weather pattern is heading.  The ridge of high pressure in control this week will be replaced with the influences of a trough of low pressure.... UNSETTLED.
This is the Monday evening run of the GFS at 500 mb showing a potent low in the plains with a negative tilt to it.  This means the axis of the trough is oriented from southeast to northwest.  This vigorous area of low pressure would bring a round of rain and thunderstorms with it.  AGAIN, DON'T TRUST THE DETAILS!!!!!!!!  JUST NOTICE THERE IS CONSISTENCY WITH A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST.  HOW IT AFFECTS OUR WEATHER IS NOT KNOWN YET!
This is the overnight run of the European model showing a blocking pattern setting up.  This is the 500 mb pattern.  Notice the trough off the west coast, then a ridge over the western United States into Canada and then a strong trough over the central United States.  This would bring much cooler air into the state if it verifies by the middle of next week.  HOWEVER, THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN ERRATIC IN THE LONG RANGE, BUT LET'S WATCH IT!!!!!!

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NOAA Winter Guidance