Sunday, March 25, 2012

Record Breaking March!


It looks like winter contest #1, which I extended until the end of March, will not have a winner.  I'll keep the prizes and give them away in the summer contest.  Stay tuned for that.

As we mentioned here on the Arkansas Weather Blog a couple of weeks ago, this month could be record breaking.  With only a few days left, it looks very likely March 2012 will easily make it into the record books!

I keep getting asked if that means we'll have a very hot summer.  Actually, there's no connection between the weather now and what could happen down the road.  For those of you who read this blog regularly, I don't like long range forecasting.  I have seen more wrong than right.  With that said, weather patterns can easily change.  For instance, look at the winter of 2010-2011.  We had record breaking cold and snow, then the following summer we experienced record heat.  Remember early last August when Little Rock soared to a record breaking 114 degrees and Fort Smith put together a record breaking stretch of 100 degree + temperatures?

I have seen some long range forecasts for the summer months which indicate it will actually be a cooler and wetter summer than the past 2.  Take that with a grain of salt though and hope that actually happens.

This week will feature more warm weather and records will be challenged.  Here's a list...

Monday 85 (1907)
Tuesday 87 (1895)
Wednesday 86 (1907)
Thursday 85 (1974)
Friday 86 (1963)
Saturday 91 (1974)

Here are a few graphics showing where we stand in terms of a record March and what I'm projecting by the end of the week.

If March ended Sunday, this would be the warmest March in Little Rock weather history in terms of average daily high temperature.  Records date back to the 1870s.  I see no reason why that should change with more warm weather in the forecast.
If the month ended Sunday, it would be the 5th warmest in terms of average daily low temperature.  Since readings will be above average all week long.  I'm projecting we'll finish 2nd in this category.
If March ended Sunday, it would be the 2nd warmest March on record in terms of average monthly temperature.  This is combination of the average high and low.  Based on our forecast through the end of the month, I think we'll likely end up as the warmest March on record by average monthly temperature.

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