Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Cool And Wet Weather Ahead



I've had a chance to relax after last Sunday.  As we thought, it wasn't going to be anything like the Plains saw on Saturday.  However, the Storm Prediction Center decided to blanket the state with tornado watches for the majority of the day.  That meant going into work and monitoring the radar all day.  That's what we do this time of year though and being in Arkansas we're use to it!

The WeatherNinja will post pictures and video of his tornado chase Saturday in Kansas.  He saw 5 tornadoes!!!!!  I have seen some of the pics and video and it's truly amazing what he captured.  He was within 2 miles of the Wichita, KS tornado.  He sent me a clip of the video and you could hear the roar of the twister.  Look for that soon!

Also, I'll be asking for summer weather contest entries soon so stay tuned for that.

There was only 1 confirmed tornado near Morganton in southern Van Buren county.  The twister was 300 yards wide and tore a path for 2.3 miles. Our state tornado total for 2012 is up to 9 and the average is 33.  Other than that , there was some isolated thunderstorm wind damage and several thousand lost power due to the storms.

I think we'll have clear sailing until late this week when another strong area of low pressure brings unsettled weather.   This does not look like a significant severe event, but we'll have some rain and storms followed by some cool air.  Highs this weekend will be in the 60s and maybe low 70s with nighttime temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

Check out the maps below based off the 00Z GFS

At 500 mb early Sat. AM, we have yet another closed low located across east Texas.  However, the location of this low is not favorable for significant severe weather in AR. We could see a few strong storms though.  I'll continue to watch it though for any changes.  This area of low pressure will bring cool, cloudy, and rainy conditions.
Early Saturday morning, the areas of green shows forecast rain amounts over the previous 3 hours.  There's quite a bit of shower activity with heavy rains across Texas according to this one model. 

By late Saturday, low pressure forms across the northern Gulf.  That's very far south for this time of year.  At the surface, cool northerly winds are getting drawn through AR into that low.  There will still be a few showers and clouds are likely to stay in place.   This model solution would bring a cloudy and cool day with highs only in the 60s.
By late Monday, the low opens and moves to the east.  This is looking in the upper levels.  Check out the ridging across the Rockies.  We're on the east side of that which means a northwesterly flow aloft will likely keep our weather cool.
Late Tuesday, it's more of the same.  Quiet.  I like that.  The ridge over the Rockies moves a little to the east.  Still a mostly dry and cool pattern.

By the end of next week, the GFS begins to break the ridge down and moves it to the east.  This may bring us back to an unsettled pattern, but it's way down the road.

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