Sunday, April 01, 2012

March Statistics & What's Ahead

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It looks like we have no winner in winter contest #1.  I will hold onto the prizes and give them away in the summer contest.  Details later this spring so stay tuned.

As we told you here first around the middle of March, there was the potential for March to make its way into the record books.  Check out the official stats. below from the National Weather Service Office in North Little Rock.


The weather will become somewhat unsettled this week.  First of all, I think there will be a weak disturbance which may spark off a few showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening.  The Sunday morning run of the NAM showed this affecting southern Arkansas, but the afternoon run showed it affecting central and southern areas.  At this time, I'm going to keep the chance small.

The more significant storm system is yet another cut off area of low pressure.  We're getting very familiar with these around here lately.  As usual, it will slowly creep towards the state.  While the there will be a chance for some wet weather Tuesday, it looks like Tuesday night into Wednesday could be the greatest chance for showers and storms.  While I don't expect widespread severe weather, there will be the possibility for some rough weather with this feature.

As it lifts away, warm air will once again flood into the state from the west.  Any drop in temperatures with this upper level feature will be replaced with readings well into the 80s again by the end of the week.  There are also some hints of a front affecting the state Easter weekend, but it being several days down the road, things can change.  I'll keep you updated.

The Sunday morning run of the NAM indicates a few showers and storms for southern Arkansas late Monday afternoon associated with a weak disturbance.
The Sunday afternoon run of the NAM shows a more expansive area of rain and storms late Monday.  As of Sunday evening, I have a 20% chance in the forecast, but this must be watched.

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NOAA Winter Guidance