Monday, April 02, 2012

Unsettled Easter Forecast?


Wouldn't you know it!?  We haven't had any real significant rainfall for awhile and now the models are showing a front in the state Easter Sunday.  Since this is still 6 days away, nothing is etched in stone at this point, but most models do agree things could get a little unsettled for the Easter Bunny's visit to Arkansas.  I'll explain with the maps below.

Also, we might sing a new weather tune after Easter.  "Ding, Dong, The Ridge Is Gone".  A small pattern change may allow temperatures to return to where they should be for this time of the year, which will be the lower 70s.  Still mild, but not the 80 to 90 degree weather we have been experiencing.  I'll have more on that later.  I want to let all of you know with Easter plans outside what's up.

This is the GFS indicating a surface low pressure over southern Canada with a trailing cold front through IL to OK and into TX.  That's the blue lines you see.  The areas of purple and blue show quantitative precipitation over the previous 12 hours.  Notice the rain and storms along the front by 7AM Easter Sunday.  Remember, this can still change.
And this is the overnight run of the Euro showing some rain early Sunday morning, but not too much and it's confined to northern AR where the cold front will be located.
The Canadian moves the front well south and has some left over showers across southern and eastern Arkansas.  So we're 6 days away with some model differences, but most of the data indicates a front in the area and we'll have to watch where that ends up.

1 comment:

jimmylee42 said...

I agree with Ninja on Bobby P finding a new hobby.

Now to the weather. So much to follow on the incredible amount of records all across the country that fell this winter and spring. With all the heat records, remember that Alaska had the coldest January in their history, and Alaska has had some cold Januarys in its weather history.

One of the things that really surprised me about this winter was the rare event of not having a single low temp under 20 degrees at the NWS in LR. My research so far has not found another winter when that happened.

NOAA Winter Guidance