Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Roller Coaster Gets Stuck?


Today marks 1 year since the Vilonia tornado.  There were many other communities affected as well on this horrible day.

Here's an email I received shortly after and video from the edge of the tornado.

"Just thanking everyone in the newsroom, especially Ned, Todd, Barry for the excellent coverage with the weather this week. I live in Vilonia and the tornado just hooked to the NW of us a few hundred feet. I set my video camera in the upstairs window and got to the closet with the family."

Vilonia Tornado from Scott Patrom on Vimeo.

Here's a radar image of the debris ball produced by the violent tornado.

Vilonia tornado 1 year ago, April 25th

Just yesterday I posted about a wild swing in temperatures that appeared to be likely over the next week.  Well, now the models say, "nevermind".  I want to remind you that it's only Wednesday and much can change as we get closer to the weekend and beyond.   However, we must pay attention to what the models are saying and it looks like there is now a strong possibility the front gets hung up to the north keeping Arkansas in the "warm sector" and our rain chances will be kept to a minimum and mainly confined to northern Arkansas.  You just gotta love Arkansas weather, it changes quickly along with the data.

Check out the GFS comparisons below...

This was the GFS run from early Monday morning valid next Sunday morning.  The closed black line over Ohio is the surface low with a front extending south into northern AL and into northern LA.  The small black lines point to the direction from where the wind is coming from.  At the surface, it's all northwesterly over AR with cool temperatures advecting into the state.  This would have resulted in widespread 40s and 50s next Sunday morning.
Now this is the overnight run of the GFS Wednesday valid next Sunday morning.  The front is hung up to the north and stretches from west TX into southern Missouri eastward into Virginia.  The warm colors indicates lows Sunday morning in the 60s with humid conditions with a flow off the Gulf.  You can see the sharp temperature contrast associated with the front with the quick change in colors over a short distance to the north.  WHAT A BIG DIFFERENCE!
Click to enlarge.  Now the manual progs from the HPC indicates the front stalling this weekend over northern AR, then retreating to the north.

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