Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Another Temperature Roller Coaster

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7:30 AM Wednesday Update... Hold on just one second, the models are now doing their flip flopping and keeping the front north of the state.  This would limit a big swing in temperatures and keep rain chances to a minimum and mainly confined to northern Arkansas.  What a big difference in just a could of days with the models.  Remember though, it's only Wednesday so we'll see how this plays out.

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On my twitter bio it says, "following this crazy Arkansas Weather".  Well here we are going into late April and it's feeling more like March. But wait and it may start to feel like May, then maybe a little April by next week.  Yes, we have another wild temperature roller coaster to deal with over the next week with some rain thrown in there as well.

Canadian high pressure, which brought us chilly overnight lows and cool daytime highs, will slip off to the east.  A return flow around it will get underway for the rest of the week.  It's going to be breezy as well.  A front will make a run at northern Arkansas late in the week, but will not make it so I think we'll stay mostly dry, very warm, and increasingly humid.  As a matter of fact, after lows in the 30s in some portions of Arkansas Monday and Tuesday morning, some places could approach 90 by the end of the week.  How's that for a roller coaster?

Beyond this week, the front may finally get a push into the state this weekend increasing our rain chances and dropping our temperatures back to "average" levels or slightly below average levels next week.

We have a big month in front of us, May.  I'm keeping my eye on the forecast for "Toad Suck".  Mother Nature has not been friendly to the festival in recent years.  It's too early to make a forecast, but the law of averages says we're due for a nice festival!

By the way, I'll throw this out there for you to think about.  You know how I feel about long range forecasting.  I think the science just isn't there yet.  Many talented meteorologists are advancing it to the best of their abilities.  What I'm saying is, take the following with a grain of salt.  Some of the VERY long range models show below average temperatures for much of the country next fall and winter.  There I said it!  Don't take it to the bank yet. LOL

Check out the maps below from the 06Z Tuesday run of the GFS

This is valid at 1AM Friday.  Look at the low over the CO and KS border.  There's a front extending eastward from it.  The black lines oriented from southwest to northeast across Arkansas indicates a strong southwesterly flow here at the surface.  The front is hung up to the north with very warm and humid conditions around here for late in the week.  Also, notice there's strong high pressure over Canada.  That's some chilly air up there!  SOME of that will try to cool us down a little next week.

The GFS valid next Sunday morning shows the front slipping to the south with some rain across Arkansas.  A cool east to northeasterly wind at the surface will develop as that high pressure moves to the south out of Canada.  So it appears by late in the weekend, after a warm spell, temperatures will settle back down again.
Click on this image to enlarge.  This is the evolution of the next few days as seen by the HPC and I agree with it.  You can see the front to the north on Friday, then a wave of low pressure shoots east and drags it into AR this weekend with rain chances.  Canadian high pressure settles in early next week for more cooler weather.

1 comment:

Chad Gardner said...

Based on your official projection of below normal temps for 2012-2013 winter... is it going to snow at my house? If so, how much? Please round to the nearest tenth of an inch. Thanks...

NOAA Winter Guidance